KLARA - Climate Change: impacts, risks, adaptation | Umweltbundesamt

The climatic burdens are obtained by comparing the past climate (basic scenario for the period 1951 to 2000) and an expected future climate change in the period 2001 to 2055 (future scenario). This is done using a statistical regional model, in which a downscaling method is used to link generalised information from a global climate model with empirical regional data. The calculations in the climate models are carried out using three methods, based on the SRES emission scenario A1 from the IPCC: a) REMO (dynamic regional climate model from the MPI for meteorology, Hamburg), b) GROWEL (statistical regional model from the company Meteo-Research) and c) STAR (statistical regional model from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research).

Basic scenario:
Temperature increase between 0.6 and 1.5°C, average precipitation increase 90 mm per year (relative average increase for 9%), change in threshold events: Increase in summer days with maximum temperatures above 25°C, reduction in frosty days with minimum temperatures below 0°C and increase in days of heavy precipitation with precipitation of more than 10 mm.

Future scenario:
Further average temperature increase of 1.2°C, slight reduction in precipitation (significant increase in precipitation in West and North of Baden-Württemberg), seasonal shift with falling precipitation in summer and increasing precipitation in winter, increase in summer days and reduction in days of frost, and different regional trends for days with heavy precipitation.

2055

Climate effects in the area of human health result from the increase in weather-related mortality, as there can be a significant increase in the number of days with a heat stress and a reduction in the number of days with cold stress, with the rise in the number of days with heat stress being relatively greater.

In agriculture and in fruit growing and viticulture, more favourable climatic conditions due to rising temperatures and CO2 fertilisation (e.g. in corn cultivation) can cause positive effects. However, drought stress can cause slight climate-related reductions in yield (wheat). A warmer and wetter climate leads to higher pressure from pests, e.g. in apple cultivation. The forestry sector is affected by the climate parameters of temperature, precipitation, humidity and radiation, which has an impact on productivity, drought stress and forest fire risk.

The tourism sector can benefit from favourable developments in climate parameters relevant for bathing, such as maximum temperature, cloud cover and daily hours of sunshine, as the number of "potential bathing days" is likely to increase and extend the bathing season. By contrast, negative effects are likely for winter tourism due to a decreasing probability of snow.

In conservation, there are clear effects on migration and mating patterns, as well as on species composition and bird ranges. Conservation in the conventional sense will be almost impossible in the future.

In the area of water management, the rise in average annual flow will tend to provide more favourable conditions for utilising water power. The number of days with limited navigability due to low water may also increase.

In terms of extreme events, the intensity of hail storms will increase. In addition, significant changes in some major weather conditions have been observed since the beginning of the 1970s, and are associated with the occurrence of meteorological events that have the potential to cause substantial damage: The increase observed in the duration of "west condition cyclonic" in the winter is viewed as extremely critical both for severe winter storms (e.g. storm "Lothar") and for flood events.

The object is to set priorities to enable affected sub-regions and economic sectors to deal with climate change and to identify measures to reduce existing vulnerabilities. The analysis of existing vulnerabilities will indicate possible risks and weaknesses and highlight possible actions. Components of the vulnerability analysis include:

1. The stress on a system due to climate related effects (region, building, facility, state, company etc.); example for health: heat stress on the population in conurbations during a long period of heat;
2. The sensitivity that the system demonstrates to the stresses due to its socio-economic structure; example for health: population density and proportion of older or more sensitive people;
3. The potential effects that could result from the combination of stress and sensitivity; example for health: increasing health problems (circulation diseases) and mortality;
4. The system's adaptation potential (society, region, economic sector, company). This relates to its ability to plan, prepare, support and implement actions for adaptation to climate change; example for health: warning and emergency systems, building design and urban planning;
5. The actual vulnerability resulting from the combination of the preceding factors. This can be reduced using a package of foresighted adaptation measures made up of different measures from different sectors (e.g. vulnerability of the population to thermal stress as a product of frequency of occurrence of thermal stress and sensitivity: increase due to heat stress across all districts averaged by around 20%, with 180 to 400 additional heat related deaths per year expected across the state, and the reduction in vulnerability due to reduced cold stress cannot compensate for this rise).

The idea of these vulnerability analyses is not to represent disaster scenarios. Instead, the results should indicate potential risks and weaknesses and highlight options for action. The analyses show that there is a potential regional and sector specific vulnerability. By recognising this vulnerability, society can derive and implement options to implement targeted adaptation measures.

In addition to the frequency of occurrence of thermal stress, the sensitivity of the population to this type of stress has been determined. The result is that the population group above the age of 75 has a particularly sensitive response to thermal stress.

For the influencing factors that determine vulnerability, adaptation capacity is of critical importance in terms of the necessity of taking action. This is where conflicts of interest are most likely to come into play. Adaptability is a measure of the number, quality and feasibility of the different adaptation options that are theoretically available. It must be specified in terms of at least three questions: What administrative levels are included? Which sector is being studied? What climate events are included? There are two possible approaches here: 1. An objectivistic approach (top down) with "objective" indicators obtained from perceptions about the mechanisms underlying the adaptation process to be used to record the different aspects of the adaptation process, and 2. A subjectivistic approach (bottom up) involving subjectively perceived risks and adaptation options determined from decision makers using questionnaires. Future changes in adaptability have mainly been ignored in the past.

The players should primarily deal with the effects of climate change to which the state is particularly susceptible. A sectoral and regional focus for risks and opportunities needs to be set up and priorities for risk prevention established.

Adaptation is the key concept in the project as the aim is to highlight priorities for dealing with affected sub-regions and economic sectors and to identify measures to reduce existing vulnerability. The objective is to define the need for adaptation and action by identifying regional impacts, the relevant impact dimensions, players and their interdependencies. Avoidable risks of climate change for Baden-Württemberg will be identified and possible opportunities for state development in response to climate change utilised.

The studies on adaptation in agriculture cover the issues of crop sequence, irrigation, land cultivation, fertilisation and plant protection. In the building and infrastructure sector, issues include design regulations and methods, technical design of buildings and construction regulations and standards. Other adaptation measures are innovations to prevent summer overheating, ongoing development of design regulations for water and energy supply facilities, heat warning systems, climate-sensitive urban planning and dynamic conservation strategies.

Study of the potential for conflict that can result from the need for adaptation and action.