ClimChAlp - Climate Change, Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in the Alpine Space | Umweltbundesamt

The analysis of historical climate data and current climate models will allow future scenarios to be developed, so that the influence of the climate change on the natural hazards in the Alpine region can be better understood and predicted. The climate models used are the global model ECHAM5 and the regional model REMO ( Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg).

wind patterns

The effects of natural disasters, risks and hazards on spatial development and key economic sectors will be identified through an assessment of climate models in combination with historical data on climate changes. In general, the climate change is posing serious challenges for the social and economic development. Special attention will be given to floods, rock falls and the increased hazard of mudslides resulting from permafrost thaws. Other consequences are the reduction of the snow cover in low altitudes and the withdrawal of the glaciers. These effects have an impact on economic sectors such as tourism and lead to an altered species distribution of plants and animals. The consequences for regional planning will be investigated in the project. The Alps are considered to be a particularly sensitive region.

The climate change places additional burdens on the economy and ecology in the Alpine region. These systems are already exposed to natural hazards and demographic changes, as well as increased environmental stresses that increase both the risks and the vulnerability.

In project recommendation is that the first step of risk analysis should build the basis for detailed vulnerability assessments covering the factors of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The assessment procedures especially need to identify highly endangered and vulnerable areas. As an analysis and assessment outcome, the creation of spatial vulnerability maps would be desirable. These should visualise the vulnerability of the area concerned to climate change impacts. The assessment and mapping methodology, which has yet to be developed, tested and adapted, needs to be transferable to the whole Alpine region.

Background and aims: The focus is on the search for suitable adaptation strategies, with which the negative effects of the climate change in the alpine region can be minimised. With the development of a "Flexible Response Network" the strategies in the fight against natural hazards will be harmonized and adjusted across national borders. These strategies for crisis management and risk prevention will be considered jointly in more detail. In addition, international agreements on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions are essential. In the Alpine region, these need to be integrated into sectoral and economic policies, in order to reduce the consequences of the climate change and pronounce recommendations for administrative and political action.

The aim of the project is to raise awareness of the different impacts of climate change in the Alpine region with well-researched information, and to offer proposals to political and administrative policy-makers on how to deal with the future challenges while ensuring a sustainable development in the affected areas. Based on the results of the project, the project developed the following select recommendations for policy makers, administration and stakeholders:

• Transnational cooperation in the Alpine region needs to be further intensified to allow experiences, knowledge and methods to be fruitfully exchanged between administrations, technical authorities and scientists. Continuous and long-term transnational and interdisciplinary cooperation is indispensable for the development of common tools for risk handling.
•  Broadening and deepening the knowledge on climate change and its related impacts in the Alpine region is the basis for the development of sustainable adaptation strategies. In this context, environmental indicators need to be monitored, trends identified and projections for future developments continuously updated.
• Reliable scenarios are an important prerequisite for future activities. Thus, climate data sets need to be harmonised in terms of temporal and spatial resolution to get more reliable model data for future climate scenarios. Methods for correcting uncertainties in model projections have to be developed and tested to derive regional impact scenarios with a high spatial and temporal detail level.
•  Monitoring zones of already known or presumed slope deformations or other natural hazards (e.g. floods, avalanches, glacier and debris flows) should be used for identifying critical areas as well as for protecting already existing settlements This constitutes the basis for a significant reduction in costs for protective structures and damage restoration. Monitoring needs to be seen as an essential element of prevention.
•  A common transnational terminology concerning the assessment of risks and harmonisation of different approaches to danger and hazard mapping needs to be worked out. Furthermore, models for cross-sectoral hazard mapping (e.g. flooding, erosion, slope deformation, etc.) need to be developed and?discussed on a transnational level.
• Risk-oriented spatial planning and risk governance play a key role in the reduction of spatial vulnerability. It is therefore necessary to develop a generalised, clear conceptual model of regional spatial vulnerability, and to work out an operational, transferable methodology for integrative vulnerability assessment.
•  Risk communication can be substantially improved by the initiation of a “risk dialogue” between experts, stakeholders, administrations and the general public. The dissemination of information on possible impacts of climate change needs to be substantially improved at both the political and the public level.
•  Raising awareness, transdisciplinary communication and cooperation have been identified as key factors for climate change adaptation. Thus, transnational campaigns on risk management and communication should be implemented to support adaptation actions at the local, regional, national and transnational levels. Policy-makers, administration, researchers, associations, NGOs, enterprises as well as the general public should be actively involved in these campaigns.
•  A transnational and interdisciplinary, integrated approach based on natural hazard and risk management and detailed master plans (e.g. including local emergency training measures) will provide the basis for an effective early warning system, and plans need to be continuously updated during and after extreme events. For this purpose, areas that have already been identified as vulnerable must be constantly monitored. Although this kind of prevention requires adequate financial means and?does not show immediate results, it is, in the long run, the cheapest and most sustainable way to save lives and assets endangered by a changing climate.