FORKAST - Bavarian Research Cooperation 'Climate Impacts on Ecosystems and Climatic Adaptation Strategies'
Background and Goals
Repercussions from changes in the global climate are increasingly manifesting themselves on a regional level. With the current knowledge of the extent and potential impact of the global climate change, climate and ecosystem research is facing challenges that urgently need to be resolved.
Forests, grasslands and lakes are long-lived ecosystems that will be strongly impacted by future climate changes. These ecosystems cover a large proportion of Bavaria and are of considerable importance to the economy. In the light of current climate changes, the probability is steadily increasing that previously rare extreme climate events will occur more often and with rising intensity, and that unprecedented events may occur. To limit the damage to the economy that may arise from these developments, adaptation measures must be scheduled and implemented as soon as possible.
With the "Bavarian Climate Programme 2020" the Bavarian State Ministry of Sciences, Research and the Arts (StMWFK), in cooperation with Bavarian universities and specialist government agencies, has devised a bundle of measures geared to the specific conditions in Bavaria. One of these measures is the research cooperation BayFORKAST (Impact of Climate on Ecosystems and Climatic Adaptation Strategies) (FORKAST), which comprises 16 sub-projects and a coordination module. In this research cooperation, scientists from various universities and research institutions will investigate climate effects on ecosystems. The basic premise that links most of the projects is that extreme climatic events have profoundly incisive consequences for ecological processes. Current meteorological forecasts predict extreme climatic events as well as an increased variability in the weather patterns.
The central issues of the study are: How do extreme climatic conditions, e.g. drought and torrential rains, affect the characteristics and functions of ecosystems? How are individual functions affected, such as the production of biomass or the interaction between animals and plants? How resilient are our ecosystems? How far developed are the capacities of these ecosystems to compensate the ecological consequences of the climate change?
The research results are the prerequisites for evaluating how ecological services, such as slope stability, soil quality, or agricultural and silvicultural production, will be affected, and which adaptation strategies should be implemented. At the same time, they represent the basis for an efficient damage assessment or mitigation. Moreover, positive developments should also be recognized and emerging opportunities for development used at an early stage.
The investigation covers the most important areas of land use in Bavaria and includes forest areas of the Central Uplands (Fichtelgebirge, Bavarian Forest), forest and grassland areas in the Alps or in the Bavarian Alpine Foreland, moors, grasslands in lowlands and floodplains.
To address these questions, a network is provided of innovative approaches to monitoring ecosystem conditions (remote sensing, indicator systems), to the experimental simulation of extreme climatic events (precipitation, temperature), and to modelling the expected development of biotic communities (expansion of new species, biodiversity).
The overall objective is to improve the understanding of the resilience and adaptive capacity of ecosystems under changing environmental conditions. In addition, the reaction of biotic communities and their functions with regard to ecological services to society (e.g. productivity, phenology and soil fertility) are examined.
Content time
toResearch area/region
Country
- Germany
Region of implementation (all German federal states)
- Bavaria
Natural spatial classification
- Alp and North Bavarian hills
- Alps
- Alpine Foothills
- Erz Mountains, Thuringian Forest and Bavarian Forest
Steps in the process of adaptation to climate change
Step 1: Understand and describe climate change
Approach and results
Forecasts of future developments of the studied ecosystems in some sub-projects in the research cooperation, based on analyses, simulations and modelling. These studies are based on the WETTREG or REMO datasets. The evaluations mostly take the A1B scenario into account, but may be extended in some cases in order to illustrate differences in vulnerability.
Parameter (climate signals)
- Altered rainfall patterns
- Higher average temperatures
Step 2a: Identify and assess risks - climate effects and impact
Approach and results
The wide scope of research allows for diverse climate effects to be examined. The main focus lies in assessing impacts on the stability and investigating the resilience of certain ecosystems.
Some of the sub-projects are performing studies on current, long-term, interdisciplinary field experiments. More frequent dry periods, for example, increase the risk of drought stress for plants and influence their growth and development. In addition to their reduced productivity, the affected plants are also more vulnerable to diseases and pests. To examine these consequences, different sub-projects of the research cooperation participate in experiments with various heath and grassland communities. Responses to drought and heavy precipitation will be studied, as well as nitrogen turnover processes and the net carbon exchange or the composition and quality of organic soil. In addition, the enzyme activity and genetic diversity in selected plant communities will be analysed. In one of the experiments, the manipulations simulate local 100-year extreme events that will be repeated in the future, in order to model the increasing frequency of extreme events.
Forest growth as well as regeneration may react very sensitively to climate changes. In addition to the changes or decline in biodiversity, invasive species are studied in certain projects. Some projects deal with the possible deterioration of ecological networks and plant-pollinator networks. Phenological changes and the resultant changes in the ecosystem are a further important component studied in the cooperation. The studies on phenology record recurring effects in the growth and development of plants and animals, in order to identify the influence of changing environmental conditions, for example changes in weather and climate.
In addition, studies on the material resources or material cycles in soils are performed, under both natural and experimental conditions, in order to arrive at conclusions on the soil quality and soil ecology in the future.
Step 3: Develop and compare measures
Measures and/or strategies
The findings are to serve as a basis for the development of adaptation measures that minimize the impact of climate change on nature and society. In addition, the results of the studies can be used as decision support tools for politics and the economy or other interest groups. Based on the results of the studies, localized policy recommendations for forestry and nature conservation are to be derived.
For example, plant growth conditions in Bavaria will change dramatically within this century. Given the projected climate change, it is essential to know how certain key species (dominant and highly stable plant species) in resilient ecosystems will react to this, and in particular to extreme weather events. A secondary objective is to identify the provenance of selected key species that can contribute to the preservation of these ecosystems, without having to replace them with foreign species. Another point is the identification of indicator species for climate factors (flowering plants, lichens, fungi, birds, insects, snails). The aim in this project is the risk assessment for tree species, depending on the temperature history and silvicultural insect pests (bark beetle) and fungi (honey fungus and bracket fungi).
Further secondary objectives are: to identify how climate conditions affect the ecosystem services (soil fertility, carbon retention) in natural habitats on the basis of long-term forecasts, and how land use needs to be designed accordingly in the future.
On the other hand, the results are to help improve the projection and modelling of future changes in the ecosystems studied. With the collected data, projection models will be parametrized that will help assess the effects of long term climatic trends and extreme events, for example, on the stability of plant-pollinator networks and particularly vulnerable species. They are of great importance for the further development and validation of process-oriented models to predict, for example, changes in the carbon and nitrogen retention and the biosphere-atmosphere exchange of trace gases, or the vulnerability of ecosystem services under changing climate conditions.
Selection of secondary objectives of the cooperation:
To identify suitable provenances of selected key species and indicator species for environmental factors
To identify how climate conditions affect the ecosystem services (soil fertility, carbon retention) in natural habitats on the basis of long-term forecasts, and how land use needs to be designed accordingly in the future.
Time horizon
- 2071–2100 (far future)
Participants
Funding / Financing
This research association is being financed by the Bavarian State Ministry of Sciences, Research and the Arts with funds from the "Climate Programme for Bavaria 2020".
Project management
chair of biogeography, University of Bayreuth
Contact
Universität Bayreuth
Lehrstuhl für Biogeografie
Universitätsstraße 30
D-95440 Bayreuth
