Future Cities - urban networks to face climate change | Umweltbundesamt

The project refers to no specific climate scenario. The projects of 4th IPCC situation report form the basis of the pilot projects. The aim of the Future Cities project is to test practical adaptation measures against the background of the given planning uncertainties.

The project mainly addresses the following relevant parameters for built-up areas (in the north-western Europe):

a. higher average temperatures

b. higher and more frequent extreme temperatures, more hot days

c. fewer cold days, fewer frosts and snow days

d. less summer precipitation, summer drought

e. more frequent and more extreme rain events, increased flash-flood risk

f. more frequent and extreme storms

g. rising sea level

Not defined; The starting point is the present time.

Based on the above parameters, the following effects/impacts are considered:

a. Effects on atmospheric humidity and water resources, particularly groundwater;

b. Impact on vulnerable elements (old/infirm people, flora, fauna, etc.), heat island effect;

c. Impact on human health;

d. Impact on water quality and quantity, limited water resources during heat waves, increased forest fire hazard;

e. Increased risk of flooding from river overflow and sewer backups, erosion hazard;

f. Impact of storms on human health and life, effects on buildings;

g. Impact on built environments in coastal areas;

The vulnerability assessments for the various areas of study (in Future Cities this includes cities, urban areas and quarters, river basins/catchments or regions) are a first step to allow policy-makers to choose adaptation measures that are suitable for local conditions. The planning and evaluation tool for adapting urban structures to the climate change, which is being jointly developed by the project partners in the form of a transnational "guidance tool for developing climate-proof city regions", provides a separate module for vulnerability.

The tool is intended to enable the partner organizations of Future Cities, and, with suitable modifications, possibly also other, similar users, to

(a) to evaluate, to document and to discuss with the various parties in the organizations involved and with policy-makers the need for adaptation measures in the context of their professional and territorial jurisdiction, as well as

(b) to compile effective measures for selected urban structures (water systems, green structures and energy efficiency) and combinations of these structures, and to assess the suitability of existing adaptation plans.

The Check Vulnerability module takes into account the sectors of population, built environment, infrastructure, economy, natural resources and administration.

These are examined in terms of their adaptive capacity and uncertainties. A further category from which significant insights can be obtained is the consideration of previous extreme events. An analysis of past press and media coverage sometimes provides useful information for deciding the appropriate adaptation measures.

Sensitivity/resilience: See above

Adaptive capacity: See above

Both at a European and at a national level, urban networks exist to promote the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Mitigation is important, but no longer sufficient. It is impossible to undo the climate changes that have occurred so far quickly enough to entirely avoid the negative effects for humans, the economy and the ecology. In addition to all the climate protection efforts, it is also necessary to adapt to climate changes. This is already an established consensus of the scientific community - yet, in practice, this is difficult to realize.

Often enough, adaptation measures are not implemented even if they are known to be helpful, partly because of a lack of convincing arguments, and partly because some measures are simply dismissed as "old hat" (e.g., rainwater separation or green roofs). Fundamental statements on effectiveness and cost-efficiency will help to rehabilitate and implement these so-called no-regret measures.

The temperature will rise in densely built environments, which will have a significant impact on the quality of life in cities. In certain locations, such as hospitals or nursing homes, this will, more often than not, lead to expensive and energy consuming reaction measures, such as increased use of air conditioning. Here, for example, the key concept of "green structures" can be used to address the problem differently, by providing a balancing effect to the rising temperatures of sealed surface areas.

The questions that the Future Cities Network will address are:

•  How can these cooling effects be used efficiently?
•  How can the cooling functions be guaranteed in prolonged dry periods?

The summers will not only become hotter, but also drier, which will severely limit the availability of water for plants and, hence, their cooling function. It will require sophisticated systems to maintain the water supply for the vegetation in urban areas.

Conversely, the winters are expected to become wetter, with increased surface drainage requirements and a higher risk of local flooding. In this respect, Future Cities is working on solutions in combination with decentralized irrigation systems in green corridors.

Overall, the main challenge is: How can the adaptation measures be combined effectively with structural urban development planning?

The Future Cities project will implement eight pilot projects, in order to test the developed approach. For this, the best combinations of green structures, water systems and energy efficiency will be identified. The effectiveness of the measures will be reviewed and evaluated.

Specific examples are: The Dutch city of Nijmegen aims to become significantly greener through creating green walls and green roofs, and by greening public areas. Belgium has a master plan for adaptation to the climate change, of which parts are to be implemented in the town of Ypres - providing examples from which other regions, cities and schools can learn. Green roofs mitigate the precipitation and temperature extremes in the industrial area of the Dutch municipality of Tiel through water retention and cooling. In an urban development area in Rouen, France, the water infrastructure is being adjusted over an area of some 5,000 square meters. A 2km blue-green corridor now improves the microclimate in Kamen, Germany. In the catchment area of the Emscher river in Germany, innovative processes have significantly increased the energy efficiency of the waste water treatment plants, and the urban climate in Bottrop has been enhanced through sustainable development of the industrial area. The Dutch city of Arnhem has identified climate change impacts for the region surrounding Arnhem and Nijmegen, and the heat island effect, in particular, is being examined. In Hastings in South East England, an innovation centre is being built as a knowledge transfer platform on the subject of adapting to the climate change.

The projects are implemented at three levels that are important for the local adaptation to the climate change: the urban regional level, the urban quarter level and the built environment level.

Objectives: Viable, effective and affordable adaptation measures are being sought for through combinations of green structures, water systems and energy efficiency.

Present

At the detail level, some adaptation measures are contrary to others; one often-cited conflict of interests is the desire for a compact urban environment with short distances and the need to create air corridors and open spaces for cooling the inner cities.

In such cases, it is important to make an accurate vulnerability assessment and climate impact projection for the area concerned before making decisions on suitable measures.