Western Pomerania | Umweltbundesamt

Emission scenario (SRES): A1B;
underlying global model: ECHAM5;
regional climate models: REMO, CLM, WETTREG;
up to date climate projections provided by the German Meteorological Office (DWD)

wind, cloud, humidity

A rise of at least 30 centimetres in the sea level by 2100 will lead to a coastline retreat. Significant land losses caused by flooding, more frequent landslides on steep coastlines and increased damage due to flash floods are expected. Increasing average temperatures and summer heat waves will permanently change the climate pattern. Increasing precipitation in winter and more frequent heavy precipitation will also lead to flood events. Reduced precipitation volumes in summer will result in drought and a reduced groundwater supply, and thus to adverse effects for agriculture and forestry. Climate sensitivity can also be observed in terms of the dependency of tourism on water quality in the Baltic and the risk to conservation areas in coastal areas. There is also a fear that climate change will affect groundwater resources due to salination.

There was no determination and evaluation of sensitivity and adaptation capacity, which means that a vulnerability analysis in the sense of the IPCC concept was not performed.

The region has a particular vulnerability (for the purposes of a climate effect assessment) because of the specific landscape features of the coastal areas on the Baltic. The coastline is characterised by shallow bays and lagoons and is a landscape that has a disproportionately high level of vulnerability to the expected rises in sea levels and more frequent and, in some cases, more extreme flash flood events compared to other coastal regions on the North Sea and Baltic. Extensive protection of the low-lying hinterland based on dykes and other measures appears to be unrealistic. There is also vulnerability in the tourism sector, due to a deterioration in water quality on the Baltic as a result of rising temperatures.

Adaptation to the expected climate change will mainly be important for the following issues:

• Dealing with rising sea levels on flat coastlines;
• Controlling housing development on steep coastlines;
• Realignment of agriculture to the changed climatic conditions;
• Strengthening of forests as climatic protection and compensating areas with multifunctional effects;
• Development of housing potential in coastal areas in accord with biodiversity and coastal protection requirements;
• Use of regional regenerative energy generation resources to strengthen the labour market;

The strategic action and adaptation concept development was based on a combination of adaptation and climate protection measures with a strong public effect. The approaches for the five main focus areas are combined in the integrated spatial development strategy. The strategy incorporates interactions that can lead to synergies or to conflicts.