RegioExAKT - Regional Risk of Convective Extreme Weather Events: User-oriented Concepts for Climatic Trend Assessment and Adaptation
Background and Goals
Extreme weather events from severe convective storms (straight-line winds and tornadoes, hail, heavy precipitation and lightning strikes) pose a threat to life and safety of European citizens and lead to significant property damage each year. There is a strong demand for regionalised risk assessments and adaptation strategies by weather-sensitive economic sectors like the insurance industry, international airports, and water management. The same holds for national weather services like the DWD in Germany in its efforts for optimisation of forecasts and warnings of such convective extreme events. The adaptation of existing building codes with respect to wind loads and precipitation maxima to climatic trends in extreme weather events is also economically relevant. From these target groups, Munich Airport and the Munich Reinsurance Group were chosen as exemplary users.
The RegioExAKT project links the users with an interdisciplinary research group. The three-year project which started in January 2007 develops the hydro-meteorological and insurance-related scenarios of extreme weather events following from regionalised climate and vulnerability projections compared to the present state. This will help to enable timely adaptation of business strategies in the insurance industry and of building codes to the severe weather hazard expected until 2030. As adaptation measures for the Munich Airport, concepts for optimised thunderstorm nowcasting and augmented drainage will be developed based on the scenarios.
Ocjectives
Determination of the trends in occurrence of, and threat by, severe convective storms in (southern) Germany until 2030, as well as the development of adaptation concepts for targeted main users (Munich Reinsurance Group, Munich international airport) on the spatial and temporal scales relevant for their business operations.
Content time
toResearch area/region
Country
- Germany
Region of implementation (all German federal states)
- Bavaria
Natural spatial classification
- Alp and North Bavarian hills
Spatial resolution
Süddeutschland, münchener Flughafen
Steps in the process of adaptation to climate change
Step 1: Understand and describe climate change
Approach and results
Climate and vulnerability trends during extreme weather: Assessing the frequency and intensity of the current and future (2030) convective extreme weather events (thunderstorms, hail and heavy rain) in Southern Germany with the help of reanalysis- and observational data, as well as global and regional climate model simulations. Comparing the forecast with the current climatic status quo.
Parameter (climate signals)
- Extreme precipitation (incl. hail, snow)
- Storm
Further times
2030
Step 2a: Identify and assess risks - climate effects and impact
Approach and results
The project deals with an economic and climatological assessment of trends of extreme weather risk in a changing climate (thunderstorm gusts, large hail, heavy rain, lightning and tornadoes).
Step 3: Develop and compare measures
Measures and/or strategies
Adjustment of insurance business and assessment basis:
- Future extreme weather risk for insurance business;
- Measurement engineering and assessment basis at Munich Airport;
- Adaptation of national construction and assessment basis.
Adjustment of short-term forecasting and nowcasting
- predictability in short (3-6 h) and short-range (1 h, nowcasting);
- nowcasting method based on radar and lightning data;
- nowcasting user interface for the airport and similar users.
Time horizon
- 2011–2040 (near future)
- 2021–2050 (near future)
Participants
Funding / Financing
Funding programme klimazwei – research for climate protection and protection from climate impacts, Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), Germany
Project management
German Aerospace Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics
Cooperation/Partners
- Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e. V.
- Freie Universität Berlin
- Ruhr-Universität Bochum
- Rheinisch-Westfälische Technische Hochschule Aachen
- Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft AG
- Flughafen München GmbH
- TÜV SÜD Industrie Service GmbH Munich
- Boschung Mecatronic GmbH, Heppenheim
- Institut für Unterirdische Infrastruktur gGmbH, Gelsenkirchen
- NowCast mobile GmbH, Stegen
- Skywarn Deutschland e. V., Lotte-Wersen
Contact
DLR - Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e. V.
Linder Höhe
D-51147 Köln-Porz
