PRUDENCE - Prediction of regional scenarios and uncertainties for defining European climate change risks and effects
Ziel der Studie
To address and reduce deficiencies in climate projections,to quantify confidence and uncertainties in predictions of future climate and its impacts, using an array of climate models and impact models and expert judgement on their performance,to interpret these results in relation to European policies for adapting to or mitigating climate change.
Erscheinungsjahr
Untersuchungsregion/-raum
Untersuchungsraum Europe incl. Germany
Räumliche Auflösung
Horizontal grid spacing of about 50 km and a few additional simulations have been made on about 20 km and even finer, eg. 12 km
Verwendete Klimamodelle / Ensembles
Emissionsszenarien A2, B2
Klimamodelle 4 different AGCMs: HadCM3, ARPEG, HadAM3H ECHAM5.
Ensembles nein
Anzahl der Modellläufe HadAM3H, HadAM3P, ECHAM5, ECHAM4/OPYC, CCM3, Arpege/OPA
Regionales Klimamodell
8 different RCMs:HIRHAM, CHRM, CLM, REMO, RCAO, PROMES, RegCM, RACMO
Weitere Parameter
temperature and precipitation; sea surface temperature will be available
Klimawirkungen
Klimawirkungen in Handlungsfeld
- Küsten-und Meeresschutz
"Risk assessment of European weather and climate extremes in future regional forecast scenarios/Winter storms: Extreme wind speeds increase between 45°N and 55°N, except over and south of the Alps, and become more north-westerly. These changes are associated with reductions in mean sea-level pressure and generate more North Sea storms, leading to increases in storm surge along the North Sea coast, especially in Holland, Germany and Denmark." (Christensen 2005: 104 f.)
Methodischer Ansatz
Kurzbeschreibung des methodischen Ansatzes
The project will provide a quantitative assessment of the risks arising from changes in regional weather and climate in different parts of Europe, by estimating future changes in extreme events such as flooding and windstorms and by providing a robust estimation of the likelihood and magnitude of such changes.
Analysekonzeptansatz Disaster-Risk-Ansatz
Komponenten im Analysekonzept Klimatischer Einfluss, Sensitivität, Klimawirkung, Vulnerabilität
Methodik zur Operationalisierung Quantitative Wirkmodelle (z.B. Abflussmodelle), Proxy-Indikatoren
Participants
Herausgeber EU FP 5
Kontakt
Client: European Commission, Brussels
Researcher: Danish Meteorological Institute (Copenhagen)
Bibliographische Angaben
Hesselbjerg Christensen; Jens 2005: Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining Europenn Climate change risks an Effects. Brussels
