Germany on track for 2030 climate targets

Further action needed in transport, buildings and natural sinks

Offshore-Windkraftanlagen — **The expansion of renewable energy has made a significant contribution to reducing emissions**
Source: Fokke Baarssen / stock.adobe.com

Greenhouse gas emissions in Germany fell by 3.4 percent to 649 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents in 2024 compared to 2023, data published by the the German Environment Agency (UBA) showed. “Germany is closing its climate protection gap and is on course for achieving its climate targets. As the world's third-largest economy, we can say that fewer greenhouse gases are possible, even with a growing economy in the coming years. The strong expansion of renewable energies and networks as well as emissions trading are guarantors for the continuous decline in climate-damaging greenhouse gases. The data shows that hard work, persistence and consistency are paying off. In these three years, we have put Germany on the right track and prepared the ground in terms of climate protection. It must now be pursued with determination and ambition. All sectors must make their contribution – we have a lot of catching up to do, especially in transport, and we have laid the important foundations for buildings, but we need consistent implementation and continuity,” said Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action Robert Habeck. “It must therefore be the task of future federal governments to continue investing in the transformation of the economy in order to achieve the climate targets that have been set.”

The legally permitted, adjusted total annual emissions of 693.4 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents (Mt CO₂eq) will be significantly undershot in 2024. The ⁠UBA⁠ projection data for 2025 also show that the target of reducing GHG emissions by 65 per cent by 2030 compared to 1990 is still within reach with the climate policy instruments already implemented – provided that these continue to be consistently applied. Greenhouse gas emissions would be reduced by 63 per cent by 2030. In the period from 2021 to 2030, the total cross-sectoral annual emissions reduction volume will even be exceeded by 81 Mt CO₂eq. However, this will only be possible because the ongoing energy transition will lead to a disproportionate reduction in emissions from energy generation, thus offsetting the shortfalls in the transport and buildings sectors under the Climate Protection Act (KSG).

On the other hand, it confirms and exacerbates the fact that Germany is at risk of falling well short of its targets under the EU Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) between 2021 and 2030. The expected overall gap in the period 2021 to 2030 is currently 226 Mt CO₂eq. This is primarily due to insufficient progress in the transport and buildings sectors, which could also become a problem for the transformation to climate neutrality in the medium and long term. Without rapid readjustment in these sectors, there is a risk of soaring carbon prices and high penalties for other EU countries. The funds for the latter would be better utilised for investments in transformation and greenhouse gas reduction in Germany.

Currently and in the future, the energy industry – and electricity generation in particular – is making a disproportionately high contribution to reducing emissions. For example, the reduction in 2024 is primarily due to a sharp decline in emissions from the fossil fuel industry of around 17.6 Mt CO₂eq despite the complete phase-out of nuclear energy in 2023. The main reason for this was the strong increase in renewable energies in gross electricity consumption in Germany with a share of around 54 per cent. The further expansion of renewable energies and a rapid end to coal-fired power generation are the central pillars for the climate protection targets for 2030 and must therefore be pursued relentlessly. According to UBA projections, the energy industry will continue to make a disproportionately high contribution to greenhouse gas reduction until 2030 and will even exceed its cumulative targets in the period from 2021 to 2030 with 250 Mt CO₂eq.

The transport sector is currently a long way off its targets and will remain so until 2030. In 2024, it will contribute around 143.1 Mt CO₂eq to total emissions, a decrease of only around 1.4 per cent compared to 2023 and therefore around 18 million tonnes above its target. The sector will also miss the cumulative annual emission volumes between 2021 and 2030 by 169 Mt CO₂eq. “The sluggish demand for battery electric cars worries me. The market ramp-up of electric cars must pick up speed again,” said UBA President Dirk Messner. State-subsidised leasing models for small and efficient electric cars with low monthly instalments (so-called social leasing) can support the ramp-up based on the French model and enable climate-friendly mobility in places where low-income people are dependent on cars. “The agreed phase-out of fossil fuel-powered cars by 2035 should definitely be maintained – this is important both for climate protection⁠ and for the planning certainty of companies. It is crucial to adhere to the targets for 2030.”

The emissions targets are also not being met in the building sector, with a slow decline in emissions of around 2.4 Mt CO₂eq, or 2.3 percent compared to 2023, to 100.5 Mt CO₂eq; 95.8 Mt CO₂eq were permitted for 2024. The main driver for the slight decline is the mild ⁠weather⁠, which resulted in less heating being used. By 2030, the sector will miss the cumulative annual emission volumes between 2021 and 2030 by 110 Mt CO₂eq. The Federal Funding for Efficient Buildings (BEG) and the Building Energy Act (GEG), including the obligation to use at least 65 per cent renewable energy when installing a new heating system from 2028, provide important incentives here. More must follow. It therefore remains questionable whether it makes sense to reduce subsidies, as assumed here in the ⁠projection⁠. The implementation of the amended EU Energy Performance of Buildings Directive, the targeted promotion of efficient technologies and refurbishment sprints with high standards are necessary in view of the trend in emissions. Refurbishment loans, financially secured by federal guarantees, would be another way of getting back on track.

In the industrial sector, emissions remained almost constant in 2024 with a slight added value of 0.1 per cent to 153 Mt CO₂eq. An increase in emissions in the iron and steel industry and the chemical industry was offset by decreases in the cement industry. The industry is still on track to exceed its cumulative target of 73 Mt CO₂eq by 2030 compared to the 2024 projections. Among other things, slower price increases in EU emissions trading for industry (ETS I) until 2035 will result in higher emissions. At the same time, current economic developments and their consideration up to 2030, particularly in energy-intensive sectors, will lead to lower emissions than in the previous year's projection data. With a view to the decade after 2030, the projections show that the long-term transformation has not yet been sufficiently implemented. This requires the faster expansion of infrastructure, particularly for electricity and hydrogen networks, and more planning certainty overall, for example through green lead markets, i.e. state-created or subsidised markets for greenhouse gas-neutral products, as well as securing funding initiatives such as the “Federal Funding for the Decarbonisation of Industry”.

There is not yet sufficient planning certainty for the transformation to greenhouse gas neutrality across all sectors and in the long term. With the current measures, Germany will achieve a reduction of around 80 per cent by 2040 compared to 1990, but the KSG target calls for a reduction of at least 88 per cent. To achieve permanent greenhouse gas neutrality from 2045, it is therefore important to realise all reduction potentials in order to keep the need for offsetting negative emissions as low as possible. The projection data for 2025 show that the instruments and measures in the area of natural carbon sinks are not sufficiently geared towards either an increase or resilience⁠ and expansion of the sink. Strengthening the natural sink capacity requires, among other things, increased support for forest conversion, forest propagation, building up the stock of wood products (more long-lasting wood products) and building up humus, i.e. increasing the carbon content in mineral soils.

Further information

The available emissions data for 2024 represents the best possible calculation at present. It is associated with corresponding uncertainties, in particular due to the limited statistical basis for calculation available at this time. The calculations are derived from a system of model calculations and trend extrapolations of the detailed inventories of GHG emissions for 2023 published in January 2025. The complete, official and detailed inventory data on GHG emissions in Germany for 2024 will be published by the UBA in January 2026 with the submission to the European Commission.

To prepare the projection data, the UBA regularly commissions an independent research consortium which, in collaboration with the Thünen Institute, uses an integrated modelling approach to estimate the impact of current climate protection policy on Germany's climate-damaging greenhouse gas emissions. The focus is on the results in the sectors up to the year 2030 and in the year 2050. The UBA is coordinating the work in close consultation with the responsible ministries in all sectors at federal level (energy, transport, industry, buildings, waste management, agriculture and ⁠land use⁠, land use change and forestry).

The UBA publishes a short paper on the key results of the 2025 projection data “Greenhouse Gas Projections 2025 – Compact results” as well as other accompanying publications on understanding the projection data, on model documentation for transparency in the calculations and a wide range of data . The UBA also publishes the calculations of the 2024 emissions data.