No deficit in supply of electricity expected

Federal Environment Agency presents study on alleged gap in electricity supply on account of phasing out nuclear energy by 2020

The phasing out of nuclear energy use, due to be complete by 2020, will not compromise Germany’s electricity supply.  This is the core conclusion of a new study by the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) titled Atomausstieg und Versorgungssicherheit [Quitting nuclear energy and supply security]. News headlines last week depicted a situation whereby Germany would experience shortages of electricity by 2012 at the latest if the date to discontinue use of nuclear energy is complied with.  UBA objects to these statements citing its own calculations. ”Power supply security is not in jeopardy in Germany, and there is no ”gap” anticipated”, said UBA President Prof. Dr. Andreas Troge.
No. 23/08

 

In the study, based on data collected on the existing stock of power plants, UBA calculates that there will be sufficient power supply available in Germany upon compliance with the statutorily fixed schedule (amended Atomic Energy Act  (AtG) of 22 April 2002) despite imminent decommissioning of power plants, owing to the achievement of the following objectives set by the federal government:

  1. Reduction of total power consumption by eleven percent by 2020 compared to 2005,
  2. Expansion of combined heat and power (CHP), especially with natural gas, so as to double share of CHP power to 25% by 2020, and to
  3. Develop renewable energies to account for roughly 30% of all power supply by 2020.

Another important factor will be the replacement of power plants, perhaps as currently discussed in many regions, by new construction of highly efficient coal power plants. UBA believes that the type of power plant that will be built depends on developments in European emissions trading. Scarcer certificates and auctioning, as well as rising fuel prices and the increase in investment costs to build a power plant, will (considering current electricity prices) lead to operation of conventional condensation coal-fired power plants (lignite or hard coal) becoming uneconomical as compared to CHP and renewable energies. In investors’ own interest, this might shift development towards lower- emissions production of electricity and more economical use of it.
 

Umweltbundesamt Hauptsitz

Wörlitzer Platz 1
06844 Dessau-Roßlau
Germany

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