Analysis of current developments in global carbon markets | Umweltbundesamt

The research project analysed and evaluated the current status of the use of climate protection projects from the CDM in the international carbon market.  Based on a maximum offer in the CDM of 4.6 billion emission credits (so-called CERs) for the years 2013-2020, a first analysis identified and quantified project types that are particularly dependent on the revenues from the CDM, i.e. where the risk of project termination appears particularly high due to the currently low market prices (so-called vulnerable projects). It was shown, for example, that commercial livestock manure management projects or those to promote improved cook stoves would probably be abandoned without the additional income from the CDM, and therefore cease continuation of their GHG abatement.
Based on these findings, the implication of different restrictions on the potential volume and cost of supplying CERs was assessed. The restrictions considered relate both to various cut-off date regulations that would exclude older CDM projects as well as to the promotion of particularly vulnerable projects. According to the analyses, such restrictions have a significant impact on the future supply potential and can reduce the volume of CER supply to less than 1/10 of the maximum possible supply. Finally, the data and calculation tools used in the project were updated and summarized so that, considering various conceivable regulatory restrictions, an updated calculation of possible CER supply until 2035 can be made at any time in the future.