CARAVAN - Climate change: a regional assessment of vulnerability and adaptive capacity for the Nordic countries
Background and Goals
The primary objective of the project “Climate change: a regional assessment of vulnerability and adaptive capacity for the Nordic countries” involves comparing and contrasting alternative methods of quantifying regional vulnerability to climate change in Nordic countries. Detailed vulnerability assessments will be produced in subsequent national and Nordic studies.
Objectives:
- Researching alternative methods of defining the hazard from climate and climate change, based on a consistent set of climate observations and scenarios from multiple sources.
- Investigating alternative influence models used in partner countries for evaluation of sectoral sensitivity to climate change, and analysis of their applicability at city level in Nordic countries.
- Analysis of appropriate indicators of adaptive capacity, based on literature research, comparison of national approaches and experience, as well as available data and scenarios.
- Performance of initial vulnerability mapping for the present and the future (e.g. 2050) in each Nordic country for at least one common sector, using alternative approaches, scenarios and indices, and comparison of the results.
- Reporting the results to stakeholder groups and preparation of recommendations for future integrated assessments of regional vulnerability to climate change in the Nordic region.
Content time
toResearch area/region
Country
- Finland
- Norway
- Sweden
Steps in the process of adaptation to climate change
Step 1: Understand and describe climate change
Approach and results
Various scenarios from various sources will be used.
Step 2a: Identify and assess risks - climate effects and impact
Approach and results
Regions, sectors and communities to be studied will be identified during the project. For example, a pilot project will concentrate on analysing the agricultural sector in the Nordic countries. As the work is closely linked to ongoing or planned studies of vulnerability in individual partner countries, CARAVAN may be in a position to refine experiences from these projects and to extend the analysis.
Step 2b: Identify and assess risks - Vulnerability, risks and chances
Approach and results
The primary objective of CARAVAN is to perform a comparison of methods for estimating regional vulnerability to climate change in Nordic countries. Vulnerability is a function of the burden of climate change, sensitivity to its effects and adaptive capacity to overcome these effects. These elements will be studied in the project, and indicators will be developed in collaboration with regional stakeholders for future periods up to 2050. These indicators will then be combined in different ways to define vulnerability. Vulnerability indices will be calculated at city level and mapped over the Nordic region.
The central result is the “Online Mapping Tool” for evaluating the “relative vulnerability”
Step 3: Develop and compare measures
Time horizon
- 2021–2050 (near future)
Participants
Funding / Financing
The budget is €148,000 and is funded by national resources: Academy of Finland, Norwegian Research Council and Swedish Environmental Protection Agency.
Cooperation/Partners
CARAVAN is made up of cooperation between three organisations with interdisciplinary research team:
Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Helsinki, Finland;
University of Oslo, Faculty of Sociology and Human Geography, Oslo, Norway;
University of Linköping, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research, Linköping, Sweden;
Contact
Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE)
Mechelininkatu 34a
FI-00251 Helsinki
Finland
