GERICS Climate Service Center Germany | Umweltbundesamt

All current global and regional climate models are taken into account.

e.g. wind, air pressure, specific humidity, liquid water content, specific water content of rain and snow, radiation, clouds and precipitation processes, soil processes, and the exchange process between ground surface and atmosphere

1. Greenhouse gas emissions are on the increase. Worldwide, carbon emission through burning fossil fuel increased by 40 percent between 1990 and 2008. With each year that passes in which nothing is done, the likelihood increases that global warming will exceed 2 ºC by the end of the century, a value that many experts regard as critical. Even if the level of anthropogenic emissions were to remain constant from now onwards, the carbon emission within the next 20 years would nevertheless be high enough to provide a 25 percent probability that global warming could still exceed the 2 ºC mark.

2. The current global temperatures reflect the global warming we have already caused: Over the past 25 years, temperatures have increased by an average of 0.19 °C per decade. This agrees very well with the predictions of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and their impact on the global temperature development. Even in the last decade, global warming continued despite the fact that the amount of sunshine decreased overall. While natural, short-term fluctuations of the global temperature continue to occur, the long-term warming trend continues unabated.

3. There are indications of an increase in extreme events: According to the current trend, we can expect a further increase in temperature extremes as well as severe precipitation and droughts. Observations show that the intensity of tropical cyclones in the past 30 years has increased with the warming of the oceans. So far, this development is not projected in climate models.

4. Land-use changes have a major influence on the climate: Land-use changes, especially deforestation, can have a significant impact on the regional climate. Global effects are based mainly on the associated increase in carbon emission. Observations (e.g., drought in the Amazon region in 2005) suggest that tropical rainforests could release more carbon in the future than they can collect, if precipitation decreases.

5. Ice sheets and mountain glaciers are melting faster: Satellite observations and on-site measurements clearly show that the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are losing mass at an accelerated rate. At the same time, the melting of virtually all mountain glaciers is also accelerating.

6. The Arctic sea ice is shrinking rapidly: The Arctic sea ice dwindles significantly more in the summer than climate projections have hitherto shown. The sea ice cover in the summers 2007 and 2009 was 40% under the average values calculated for the most recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in both years.

7. The possible sea level rise is currently underestimated: Satellite measurements prove that the average sea level rise over the last 15 years was 3.4 mm per year, or 80 percent higher than earlier IPCC projections showed. It is even possible that the sea level rise by 2100 could be double that projected in the last IPCC report. In the coming centuries, a further rise by several meters can be expected, even if the global temperatures stabilise.

The current climate change information determined by the Climate Service Center 2.0 also provides insights into vulnerability issues, and can even be used for specific vulnerability analyses.

The transfer and exchange of current "climate knowledge" has the purpose of supporting climate change adaptation. To this end, the Climate Service Center 2.0 prepares and communicates climate research knowledge according to the practical requirements of its specific clients, as a decision basis for potential adaptation measures.