KIBEX - Critical infrastructure and population/civil protection in the context of climate change related extreme events | Umweltbundesamt

For the project, the IPCC A1B scenario will be used. It serves as a basis for various regional climate models, whose projections are to be compared within the framework of the project in order to arrive at example areas for Germany. The dynamic climate model CCLM will be used, and the statistical models STAR and WETTREG. The climate projections of different models concern the periods between 1951-2060 (STAR), 1961-2100 (WETTREG) and 1960-2100 (CCLM).

extreme weather events

The project will investigate the effects of extreme weather events caused by the climate change, namely heat waves, drought, low water levels and torrential rain, both directly, in their impact on critical infrastructure (particularly electricity generation/supply and water supply) and population, as well as indirectly, through dependencies and cause-and-effect relationships.

The working definition of vulnerability used in the KIBEX project is made up of the physical, social, economic, and ecological factors and processes that determine the vulnerability of population groups, systems, or elements, their exposure to the impact of hazards, their capacity to manage the effects of such events, and their capacity to adapt to them (own definition after UN/ISDR 2004).

The working definition of resilience used in the KIBEX project comprises the ability of a system or society exposed to shocks and disturbances to maintain their basic functions. This is dependent on the degree to which the social system is able to organize itself and learn from previous disasters, in order to develop better prevention measures (own definition after UN/ISDR 2004 and Adger et al. 2005).  

The KIBEX project is intended to analyse vulnerabilities, of which the adaptive capacity and management ability of different parts of the population or critical infrastructures are an aspect that will also be investigated. The term "adaptation" refers to measures for natural and human systems that are intended to help survive the effects of the climate change with as little harm as possible (BMU 2009).

Within the framework of the project, adaptation measures can be  jointly developed in cooperation with the participating towns, and also with civil protection organizations and infrastructure operators. However, the priority should be to identify vulnerabilities to be used as a basis for this (with particular reference to the components of exposure, susceptibility and adaptive capacity).

The objectives of the project are to provide applicable results for improving civil protection and emergency management through vulnerability assessments of the population and critical infrastructure, to create a solid information base, and to develop courses of action in cooperation with all the participating stakeholders. To this end, the identification of cause-and-effect relationships and dependencies should help to improve preventive planning.