Background and Goals
Given changing ecological, economic and social conditions, the collaborative research project NaLaMa-nT intends to provide an appropriate information and decision making base in order to developed an innovative and sustainable land management in the North German Lowlands and identify possible action strategies. The comprehensive approach of the project creates a comparative overall view of the various sectors of land use. The land use systems will be considered as a complex network and the interdependencies under current and future conditions will be figured out.
This offers the opportunity to develop a joint valuation standard for a sustainable land management using a cross-sectoral system of indicators. The results will also identify facts and needs for action. Thereby a reliable basis for spatial planning and decisions for companies, administrations and politics will be created.
The project combines 21 sub-projects in the scientific fields of climatology, agriculture, water management, forestry and socioeconomics. The work is divided thematically in 7 subprojects: integrative land management, ecological bases, land and resource management, risk management, operational and regional added value, regional management and coordination.
In order to develop the results in a practical way and enable the subsequent implementation, besides the representatives from the realm of practice and decision makers from the model regions, representatives of national organizations on agriculture, forestry and water management will be involved in this project as well. The exchange between science and practice intends to clearly identify the partly competing demands of different land users and to support the balance of interests in order to strengthen the sustainability of rural areas as a whole.
Sub-targets:
- analysis of the ecological conditions, the land and resource use, the risks for value-added chains and the urban-rural relations.
- model-based assessment of the impacts of climate change and the globalization of markets.
- identification of quantitative, cross-sectoral indicators for sustainable land management.
- participatory development of models of sustainable agriculture, forestry and water management.
- development of adaptation strategies to strengthen rural areas and restructuring the urban-rural relations.
Content time
toResearch area/region
- Germany
- Brandenburg
- Lower Saxony
- North-East German lowland
- North-West German lowland
model regions: administrative district Diepholz, administrative district Uelzen, Fläming, administrative district Oder-Spree
Steps in the process of adaptation to climate change
Step 1: Understand and describe climate change
The climate change is described by modeled data (Model STARS II) based on the IPCC scenarios RCP 8.5. A high (anthropogenic) radiative forcing of at least 8.5 W / m2 in 2100 is assumed which is supposed to increase later on.
The first model runs of ECHAM6 based on this scenario show a warming of about 3 degrees for the period considered in the project. Only beyond the year 2070, temperature values are expected to rise much more.
Followed by an initial analysis of the ECHAM6 model runs, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) will select the essential data for the further processing and regionalization. This will be done by using the model STARS. To describe the variability of the STARS-runs, the quantiles 5% and 95% are chosen which are based on the range of trends of climatic water balance out of the 1000 projections. The meteorological parameters based on the quantile and the median of the mentioned projections will be provided for climate impact research.
- Higher average temperatures
All parameters of the climate model
- medium term = to 2050
Step 2a: Identify and assess risks - climate effects and impact
The analysis of climate change is mainly based on modeling. The climatic changes will be regionalized covering a minimum period of 50-years using the model STARS and assuming selected climate scenarios and modeled extreme events. The changes in technology and markets are analyzed in socio-economic scenarios, which are based on existing market forecasts and legal restrictions considering the changing regional demand, farm structures and production lines. In order to ensure or realign their potential uses and value creation potentials, the sectors of forestry, agriculture and water management will be forced by these drivers to develop appropriate adaptation strategies. Their suitability will be investigated with the help of simulated calculation.
For forestry and agriculture, climate change impacts will be simulated using virtual model farms representing the locational and natural conditions in the model regions. Concerning the water management selected watersheds will be chosen for this purpose. Changes regarding the water balance will be figured out using the models SWAT and IWAN, those for the soil by using the water and nutrient balance models WASMOD and WASIM/ETH. The forest development will be updated rule-based using the growth simulator BWINPro. The agricultural rotation systems and cultivation methods will be analyzed by using the models ROTOR respectively the operating model MODAM to simulate and REPRO for the evaluation.
The socio-economic scenarios will probably be oriented along the storylines "economically oriented in a homogeneous world" and "ecologically in a heterogeneous world" (similar to the SRES scenarios A1 and B2) and the respective complement "intensification of biological raw materials". The consistency of the scenarios and their land use specific concretizations are currently being coordinated within the project. The next steps will be carried out within the subproject "added value" and will include the development and content-related coordination of scenarios within the control group and the sub-projects.
Step 3: Develop and compare measures
The object of this project is, to initially quantify the aspired sub objectives under present and future conditions regarding their specific operational and regional purpose and to attach specific weight then together with the actors. Considering the interactions between different types of land use, multi sectoral sustainability indicators will be identified together with the actors and stakeholders subsequently. Using these sustainability indicators the respective degree of target attainment for each criteria can be determined. As the case may be, these then show demand for action or differences in adaptation strategies.
- 2036–2065
The exchange between science and practice intends to clearly identify the partly competing demands of different land users and to support the balance of interests in order to strengthen the sustainability of rural areas as a whole.
Participants
Funding under the BMBF (Federal Ministry of Education and Research) funding program "Sustainable Land Management" - "Module B: Innovative system solutions for sustainable land management"
Northwest German Forest Research Institute (NW-FVA)
Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ);
University of Vechta;
Eberswalde forestry state center of excellence - The service and research facility of the Brandenburg forestry state agency (LFE);
administrative district Diepholz;
administrative district Uelzen;
Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF);
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK);
regional planning group Havelland-Fläming;
regional planning group Oderland-Spree;
regional planning group Anhalt-Bitterfeld-Wittenberg;
TU Berlin;
University Halle-Wittenberg;
Georg-August-University Göttingen;
Kiel University;
University of Rostock
Nordwestdeutsche Forstliche Versuchsanstalt
Grätzelstr. 2
37079 Göttingen