plan B:altic – Climate change and spatial development: Adaptation strategies for urban and regional planning in urban coastal zone regions based on the example of the Baltic region | Umweltbundesamt

A model of urban region climate changes in conjunction with structural and socio-economic developments will be drawn up. The project will analyse the extent to which the climate within a town differs from the climate in the surrounding area and which factors influence this phenomenon in coastal towns. To analyse the effects of future climate changes for urban regions, model-based scenarios of changing general conditions (climate and land use) will be developed and produced.

Scenario 1 "Constrained development",

Scenario 2 "Everything in moderation",

Scenario 3 "Extreme climate",

Scenario 4 "Consistent sustainability"

extreme weather events

Up to 2050

To date, it is uncertain how climate change will progress at a regional and local level in the Baltic region in the future and what specific climate effects will occur. Nevertheless, new problems caused by rising temperatures and extreme weather events are anticipated for urban regions close to the coast in the Baltic region.

The "Land use and specific susceptibility" sub-project analysing the various interactions between society, environment and local climate, based on the ecosystem service concept. In this context, the project involves evaluation of ecosystem services, their influence on human wellbeing and the importance of individual services in association with climate change. Existing land uses, ecosystems and population differences (e.g. age) will be studied and regional characteristics taken into account. The focus is on spatial analysis of susceptibility (social and ecological vulnerability) in terms of potential climate change effects, which will provide a basis for developing appropriate adaptation strategies. Climate change adaptation provides an opportunity to start creating more sustainable landscapes now, by analysing ecosystem services to take account of the functional efficiency of nature.

Climate changes could also bring opportunities. For long term socio-economic development it is no longer sufficient to concentrate solely on climate protection. Strategies for dealing with climate change are also required, including adaptation to its effects.

Towns on the Baltic coast are subject to particularly extreme demands due to their geographical advantages, which means that a wide range of urban and regional relationships and conditions need to be taken into account. In this situation, urban and regional planners are faced with particular requirements when it comes to ensuring permanent and sustainable development of urban regions close to the coast. Spatial planning is focused on integrative and forward-looking concepts, and thus appears to be in a position to adapt the different land uses to climate change. However, they are occasionally involved in regulatory measures that could cause detrimental events through their interaction with climate change. As a result, old routines need to be reconsidered and possible adaptation strategies developed. Testing the spatial planning instruments and methods is of central importance in ensuring adaptability. To ensure that adaptation strategies can be appropriately implemented, the various players in society need to be involved in the process, with their differing interests and the future social, ecological and economic developments and their unintended consequences.