RESPONSES – Deep emissions reductions and mainstreaming of mitigation and adaptation | Umweltbundesamt

The RESPONSES project explored the impacts of climate change on biodiversity in two alternative climate scenarios: a baseline scenario, where the annual mean global temperature increases by 4°C by the end of the century, and a mitigation scenario where the temperature increase is limited to below 2°C.

In Work Package 3 ("Scenarios"), global low-emissions scenarios (400-450 ppm CO2-equivalent stabilisation) are generated as a specific output of the project. Alongside emissions scenarios, climate scenarios will underpin an analysis of the mitigation potentials and climate vulnerability of EU sectoral policies. A baseline assessment of non-climatic drivers of EU sectoral policies will also be conducted.

Climate impacts was assessed for floods and droughts, regional policy, public health, electricity sector and biodiversity.

Climate change has profound impacts on biodiversity. A recent RESPONSES study provides a comprehensive assessment of the likely impacts of climate change on terrestrial vertebrates and plants in European protected areas. With respect to the current NATURA 2000 network, about 63% of species included in the annexes of the EU's Birds and habitats Directives are expected to lose climatic suitability by the year 2080. Previous studies had alerted us about significant expected climate impacts on biodiversity. This study evaluates for the first time the extent to which conservation instruments, namely protected areas, are able to protect biodiversity against the effects of climate change. The results show that with major climatic changes, many current EU conservation goals will not be achieved over the longer term.

RESPONSES modelled the disease risk and potential spread of vector-borne diseases in Europe under climate change scenarios. Many new and emerging vector-borne diseases could potentially become endemic in Europe over the coming decades under climate change. However, based on modelling dengue fever risk in Europe, the scale of disease burden appears to be modest, even when looking at projections to the end of the century. Nevertheless, when combined with permissive weather for vectors and local transmission, the disease burden is likely to be higher than anticipated.

The distribution of climate vulnerabilities across the EU varies greatly by impact category (RESPONSES looked at fire, heat stress and river flooding). A new analysis, combining climate impacts with adaptive capacity, shows that climate risks, which currently exist mainly in southern Europe, will grow significantly in many parts of continental Europe by the 2040s. In contrast, for Ireland, Scandinavia, much of Poland, the Baltic countries, and most UK regions, overall impacts will remain relatively low.

It often makes sense to focus adaptation efforts on correcting existing mal-adaptations, rather than trying to prepare for highly uncertain conditions in the future. uncertainties in future climate and climate impacts are large, but uncertainties in both socio-economic conditions and public attitudes concerning difficult tradeoffs are often even larger. combined, they can preclude meaningful quantitative appraisal of long-term adaptation costs and benefits, and efforts to do so may be more misleading than reliable. in almost every sector and region of Europe, however, there are major existing mal-adaptations that can be corrected, and it is should be a priority to focus on these.

RESPONSES focus on synergies, trade-offs and conflicts between mitigation and adaptation, and identify opportunities for future EU strategies and policy measures.

Biodiversity: EU nature and biodiversity policy is implemented by providing protected areas for valuable and endangered species and ecosystem types. With changing climates, the suitability of localities for species and ecosystems will shift over time. The current policy of protecting particular species and habitats at particular places is untenable given climate change. Furthermore, key adaptive responses, such as habitat restoration and ensuring coherence of reserve networks, are left to the discretion of EU Member States. A reassessment of goals is needed, as well as better coordination at the EU-level.

Public health: Effective public health interventions exist for some diseases, as well as for reducing heat stress risk among vulnerable groups. Implementation and evaluation of such programmes remain patchy and research gaps exist mainly for extreme weather events. Adaptation options depend on health services, including appropriate infrastructure and an efficient health care system. In addition, to ensure adequate responses to the health challenges caused by climate change, it is crucial that health care professionals receive appropriate and focused training. Other adaptation options include early detection, and disease management and prevention.

Synergies can be achieved between greenhouse gas emissions reductions (mitigation) and increasing climate resilience (adaptation) in some areas of EU policy, such as land use management in agriculture and more efficient use of water resources. But for much EU policy mitigation and adaptation are likely to remain separate endeavours.