West Saxony | Umweltbundesamt

The chosen climate model was WEREX IV, as it is a specially developed regionalised model for Saxony. Scenarios can be individually calculated using the Saxony climate pattern database. Because of the wide range of possible developments, all of the emission scenarios provided in the WEREX model were used:

– B1 (optimistic scenario, describing falling CO2 emissions in the second half of the 21st Century);

– A1B (assumes balanced future use of fossil and non-fossil energy sources);

– A2 (pessimistic scenario reflecting an economic focus and describing a continuous rise in CO2 emissions up to the end of the 21st Century).

seasonal precipitation, climatic water balance, extreme events

The West Saxony region is affected by all the consequential effects of climate change except for rising sea levels. Some of the climatic changes are supplementing significant existing stresses:

• For example, the region is recording a decline in summer precipitation, which coincides with significant existing loads on the water balance in the region. The climatic water balance in the region, which is part of the "Central German arid zone", can currently already be classed as more critical than in other regions of Germany;
• According to the climate projections, West Saxony is expected to experience the highest average annual and summer temperatures in the country. Effects of more frequent hot periods and the temperature increase as a whole will therefore have a considerable impact on the region;
• West Saxony was also significantly affected by the floods of 2002. The projections predict a further increase in flood events, a risk that is intensified by the fact that the region is crossed by three major rivers (Elbe, Mulde and White Elster) and the upwards trend includes both winter and summer floods;
• An increase in extreme climatic events is being recorded in West Saxony. More frequent heavy rain events and flash floods are forecast.

A comprehensive vulnerability analysis has been produced during the project, which highlights risk areas and uses. Synergies between climate protection and adaptation to climate effects were studied (e.g. CO2 efficient land use and settlement structures). The West Saxony model region used the results of the vulnerability analysis for its discussions in the various stakeholder networks. For example, intensive specialist discussions were held with forestry, water management and in several other focus focus areas. A section on the vulnerability of cultivated landscapes also analysed area-specific concepts for the Leipzig - West Saxony region. Supplementary reports and expert opinion on other issues round off the scope of the vulnerability analysis. The method has already been transferred to other planning regions in Saxony (Upper Elbe Valley / Eastern Erzgebirge, Niederlausitz).

Aspects determining vulnerability:

• Increasing maximum summer temperatures, particularly in the Leipzig urban area;
• More frequent flooding in the river valleys with risks to the population and infrastructure;
• Risks to agriculture due to longer dry periods and heavy rain;
• Increasing risk of forest fires, changes in forest stocks and recovery characteristics;
• Reduction in summer water supply with effects on groundwater regeneration and management of watercourses;
• Changes to the nature of cultivated landscapes;
• No capacity bottlenecks are expected in water supply and disposal; protection of water quality is the focus here.

Development of a coherent spatial development strategy requires interlinking of climate protection and adaptation, e.g. efficient energy use to reduce greenhouse gas emissions can be achieved by establishing an efficient land use and settlement structure. To achieve an energy efficient land use and settlement structure, the relationship between energy consumption and the associated CO2 emissions and the settlement and transport structure need to be analysed and regional planning strategies developed.

Essentially, the following three main strategies for climate protection and adaptation can be derived:

1. Sustainable safeguarding of existing regionally significant CO2 storage and sequestration capabilities by maintaining land uses and ecosystems relevant for climate protection (protection against land use changes and precautionary and protection measures to stabilise functions);
2. Strengthening and development of regionally significant CO2 sequestration potential by adapting uses, extensification or reactivation of land uses and ecosystems relevant for climate protection, particularly in areas of the landscape with particular CO2 sequestration potential;
3. Reduction in CO2 emissions caused by land use and sustainable reinforcement of saving potential by adapting or converting from land uses that emit CO2 in areas of the landscape with high or very high carbon stocks and CO2 storage capability;

In terms of agriculture, there are particular conflicts in the fertile Elbe valley: On the one hand, the regional plan designates some areas as set aside for agriculture, but on the other hand the valley area is at significant risk of flooding and this area is expected to be particularly affected by considerable falls in precipitation and temperature increases in summer. The loess hills in the South of the region is a priority area for agriculture and is particularly affected by the increase in heavy rain events and has a very high disposition to water erosion.

In terms of conservation and landscape development, current findings already confirm the fact that in core areas of the ecological network system conflicts are to be expected between a reduction in summer water supplies and further temperature increases. The Presseler wooded heath and moorland area, which is important for the whole state, is in an area with significant falls in summer precipitation, with simultaneous cumulative stresses due to gravel stripping and drinking water extraction, along with high sensitivity caused by a concentration of habitats that are dependent on groundwater.

In tourism and recreation, conflict can already be identified in the Southern Leipzig area in particular. Development of the new lake landscape will create a network of watercourses, but this requires the pre-existence of an adequate water supply. The design of new recreation areas and the choice of relevant recreation types need to adapt to the changed vegetation mix and changes in the landscape.