Expertise on the systematization of the principles of regional planning for climate impact assessment – Guideline for regional climate impact assessment

Background and Goals

For several years the adaptation of cities and regions to the unavoidable consequences of climate change has been an important area of research and work in spatial planning. Extreme events are making headlines in the media around the world and the warnings of the insurance industry about increasing damage potential, especially in densely populated areas and highlight the explosive nature of the topic. Even though the effects of climate will not lead to fundamental and sustainable changes in our world until the second half of this century, the pressure to take precaution is growing. In regards to the persistence of urban structures as well as the longevity of the often costly infrastructures, today’s cities and regions have to be prepared for resilient development.

Climate change has a different impact on different areas due to differentiated climatic changes on larger and smaller scale and on the spatially and sectorally varied sensitivities of space and society as well as the differences in the adaptive capacity, i.e. the possibilities to react to climatic changes provisionally. Accordingly, cities and regions have to deal with their individual shocks with regard to the anticipated consequences of climate change.

In order to meet these spatial challenges, there is a need for credible foundations that allow political-planning action in the area of ​​climate adaptation to focus on the needed strategies and measures (BMVBS 2007, Federal Government 2008, MKRO 2009, European Commission 2009). The spatial impacts of climate change are also subject to considerable uncertainty. Dealing with these uncertainties raises many questions, not least according to methods that cannot be weighted up for determining climate change as a basis for binding planning statements on climate adaptation. This also connects the thoroughly controversial discussion on the usability of climate projections as the basis of legally binding statements in regional planning.

The status quo shows that within numerous publications on climate change impacts and climate adaptation there is neither a single concept nor a single conceptual canon for assessing the climate impact in spatial planning (BMVBS 2011b, Franck / Overbeck 2012). Therefore with this methodological manual, the federal regional planning offers a user-friendly, technical support to determine the regional climate change impact on planning practice, which also takes account of the different regional conditions.

The methodological manual is based on findings gained at federal, state and regional level in numerous research activities and pilot projects. In 2009, for example, the Model Spatial Planning (MORO) "Spatial Development Strategies for Climate Change", or KlimaMORO shortly, began with the development of regional climate adaptation strategies and pilot projects. First evaluations are published in the BMVBS online publication 21 "Vulnerability Analysis in Practice. Content and methodological starting points for the determination of regional concerns ". The pamphlet on Climate Impact Assessment is the overall expertise of KlimaMORO - Phase II, in which seven pilot projects focus on specific questions.

Content time

to

Research area/region

Country
  • Germany
Region of implementation (all German federal states)
  • Nationwide
Natural spatial classification
  • Nationwide

Steps in the process of adaptation to climate change

Step 1: Understand and describe climate change

Approach and results 

The methodolological manual proposes an analysis of the climate change impacts:
The approach focuses on the analysis of climatic influences and sensitivities, whereby the consideration of the sensitivity has to be taken into context of the respective effects. The concerns of the individual room functions and uses result from the respective indicators to the climatic influence and sensitivity [...].

The approach differentiates the temporal relation of the individual factors and therefore the evaluation of the status quo and of scenarios is transparent. Currently, recent climate data are focus to the coherent description of the climate influences as well as the sensitivity of the current spatial uses or spatial functions on the basis of indicators, to be able to assess them in a balanced manner and to derive regional planning action requirements. [...] Climate change signals can thus be placed in a planning-relevant link to the current situation in the region. First of all, it is about answering the question of current concerns and then seeing whether climate change will increase existing shocks or create new ones. By doing so, a solution can be worked out in the regional planning climate impact analysis in which the change factor – i.e. climate change or socioeconomic change - is actually the decisive driver for a future change in the impact of a space on climate change. This then provides a methodologically consistent, comprehensible and legally valid basis for spatial planning adaptation strategies.

Step 2a: Identify and assess risks - climate effects and impact

Approach and results 

Climate change shows very different regional effects. The methodological manual therefore offers three processing depths to cope with different areas of application, requirements and process phases.

  1. Low processing depth = screening method → Overall / partial initial assessment of regional impact on climate change

  2. Mean processing depth = reference method → Outsourced standard for the assessment of impacts and thus for climate impact assessment at the level of regional planning

  3. High processing depth = scenario method → Detailed analysis of the climate sequence in the context of future regional developments

Participants

Funding / Financing 

Study conducted via BBSR KlimaMORO

Project management 

 

  • Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development (BBSR)
  • Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI)
Cooperation/Partners 

 

  • agl | Hartz • Saad • Wendl
  • plan + risk consult
Contact

Department I 6 – Urban-, Environmental- and Regional Monitoring
Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development (BBSR)
Deichmanns Aue 31 - 37
53179 Bonn

Share:
Article:
Printer-friendly version
Fields of action:
 spatial planning, urban and settlement development