Background and Goals
„Resilience of Critical Infrastructure (CI) to Extreme Weather Events (EWE) is one of the most demanding challenges for both government and society. CI are especially sensitive to EWE. The economic and societal relevance of the dependability and resilience of CI is obvious: infrastructure malfunctioning and outages can have far reaching consequences and impacts. Extreme Weather (EW) is a key phenomenon that can cause severe threats to the well-functioning of CI. The increased frequency and intensity of EW can cause Induced Hazards (IH) such as flooding, drought, ice formation, etc. which present a range of complex challenges to the operational resilience of CI. Moreover, besides a direct effect of EWE and/or IH on CI, this operational resilience is challenged further by indirect, cascading, effects of failure of one type of CI on another type of CI. This increased severity and variability in EWE resulting from effects of climate change, requires CI owners and operators to re-assess their risks and their risk management process. But: how to take (the impact of) climate change into account, how to assess your (future) vulnerability, or, how to identify potential measures for planning, designing and protecting CI?
The INTACT project supports this risk management process. INTACT is an EU FP7 project designed to offer decision support to CI operators and policy makers regarding Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) against changing EWE risks caused by climate change. The INTACT Wiki (www.intact-wiki.eu) is the platform in which the knowledge, tools and methods, developed in INTACT are shared with the world. It provides information, references, guidance and experiences on how to ensure continued resilience of CI in the context of changing climate and related EWE. This information is primarily directed at CI operators and policy makers involved with these CI. Amongst other, it contains data on:
- Climate change for the medium-term & long-term period;
- Changes in frequency and strength of EWEs;
- Changes in induced hazards;
- State-of-the-Art tools and methods used in risk assessment;
- Specific vulnerabilities for EWE for specific CI;
- Assessed best practices on mitigation measures;
In order to use this data to determine the future EWE risks to your CI, and to guide the user through this large information source, we have developed a step-by-step method using a general risk management process. This method identifies the main steps comprising ‘good practice’ in decision-making. It recognises the circular nature of risk management, which may require the review of the risk analysis and assessment after implementation of risk reduction control measures." (p. 7)
Content time
toResearch area/region
- transnational
- Finland
- Ireland
- Italy
- Netherlands
- Spain
Steps in the process of adaptation to climate change
Step 1: Understand and describe climate change
“In this wiki, we will base our climate projections over Europe on the A1B scenario, which was the considered scenario within the EU-Funded ENSEMBLES Project from the 6th FP to develop the regional climate change projections in Europe. Moreover, recently new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were formulated by the IPCC, which have been adopted in the CORDEX initiative to develop the latest generation of climate change scenarios in Europe, and have been used to assess future climate changes for the five case studies identified in the framework of the INTACT project:.
- RCP2.6 (radiative forcing reaches a peak of about 3 W/m2 before 2100 and then declines),
- RCP4.5 (radiative forcing is stabilized at 4.5 W/m2 after 2100),
- RCP6.0 (radiative forcing is stabilized at 6 W/m2 after 2100) and
- RCP8.5 (radiative forcing reaches 8.5 W/m2 by 2100 and continues to rise)
They will be used for assessment of future climate changes for the five case studies identified in the framework of INTACT project.”
- River flooding
- Heat waves
- Flash floods
- Extreme precipitation (incl. hail, snow)
- Dry periods
Induced hazards: Blizzards, landslides, rockfall, poor visibility (fog), (snow) avalanches, slush flow
2041-2070 (Mid-term)
Step 2a: Identify and assess risks - climate effects and impact
The terms used with risk are not always used in the same context. Particularly, the IPCC AR5 framework and the classic risk terminology are both used in this project, but use the same terms differently.
"The INTACT Risk Management Process is part of the overall decision-making framework to support asset owners and operators and authorities with their aim to make reliable, cost-effective, efficient, and transparent decisions."
"The objective of the INTACT Risk Management Process is to provide a structured approach to assess the Extreme Weather Event (EWE) impacts on Critical infrastructure (CI) and the resilience and vulnerability of CI as well as deriving and testing alternative measures and their costs / benefits.
Risk management is part of risk governance that refers to the institutions, rules conventions, processes and mechanisms by which decisions about risks are taken and implemented.
The risk process in INTACT is based on the process developed by the International Electrotechnical Commission [...]. The risk process follows several steps:
- Scope definition: identifies EWE that may pose a risk on CI and the context in which they should be considered such as scale and timeframe; it also describes the qualitative and quantitative approaches and provides links to existing regulation and legislation.
- Risk identification: explores and classifies the main hazards and vulnerabilities taking into account cascading effects
- Risk estimation: assesses the risk magnitude using available models and taking into account uncertainties"
Step 2b: Identify and assess risks - Vulnerability, risks and chances
- “Risk evaluation: assesses the magnitude of risk considering the particular context of the CI
- Proposals for action: survey what measures are available to manage risk
- Risk reduction control: monitor and review progress and changes in the risks"
Step 3: Develop and compare measures
„The INTACT Wiki serves as a vehicle to make the knowledge and information produced/developed in the INTACT project available to the stakeholders in Europe that are in a position to use this information to assure a sufficient level of resilience for the CI in Europe in the light of changing weather hazards.
As such, the main functions of the wiki are:
- to assemble the information and knowledge gained in the project into a comprehensible and consistent whole and;
- to provide a means to share this information with the intended audience in an accessible and applicable way.“
- Presence
- 2011–2040 (near future)
- 2071–2100 (far future)
Step 4: Plan and implement measures
- INTACT-Wiki: shared online platform of accumulated knowledge, tools and methods
- Risk management decision framework: “usage of data in the Wiki to determine the future EWE risks to CI and guidance of user through large information source (depending on type of CI and EWE that are of interest to the user) step-by-step method using the risk management process”
- INTACT Education and Training: “The role of the INTACT Educational Programme is to provide a viable mechanism to propagate the holistic vision of INTACT to its intended audience (and auxiliary multidisciplinary audience) and to continue to build usage of and confidence in the INTACT project concept and products beyond the lifecycle of the INTACT project. We provided a rationale and development path for the design and specification of the INTACT concept and key knowledge emanating from the deliverables which can be incorporated into a robust educational programme pertaining to the resilience of Critical Infrastructure as a consequence of climate change.”
„The INTACT consortium prepared and organised case studies and workshops with stakeholders and organisations in different regions throughout Europe that have a direct or indirect responsibility for CI in their region. To get an overview of the problem, first an inventory of relevant CI and relevant stakeholders was carried out. The overall aim of the test cases is twofold:
- To raise (collective) awareness and understanding of the (wider) risk that EW may pose to their CI, through CI-vulnerability and interdependencies with other CI and to assess contributions from technologies and other measures to reduce such risk; and
- To test the INTACT frameworks, tools, methods and to give feedback to other INTACT Work packages.
The regions selected for the INTACT case studies are spread throughout different regions of Europe, to incorporate different climate zones, landscape types and environmental zones, as well as for different CI categories.“
- Regions selected: Finland, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Spain
Step 5: Watch and evaluate adaptation (monitoring and evaluation)
“This forms the final step in the risk process, which in the current IEC 31010 formulation, corresponds to the ‘Monitoring and review’ step which circles back to the start of the process. So in reality, ‘risk reduction control’ is what the whole process is trying to achieve and represents the need to continually re-assess the risk at appropriate intervals, which is achieved by monitoring and review protocols. This is necessary as the external environment is ever-changing, such as extreme weather and the population demographics, so the requirements and impacts for a CI system are always in flux. The review period will be set to an appropriate interval, although in reality quality controls will be continuous for most CI systems. Separate to the risk process, CI systems require a monitoring and control protocol, which will be used on a regular basis to check that:
- Previous assumptions about risk are still valid (as determined in the scope definition and risk identification steps);
- Assumptions used in the risk assessment remain valid, including the external context (assumed weather hazards, CI demands etc.);
- Outputs from the CI system(s) are as required;
- Risk assessment methods are being correctly applied;
- Risk mitigation measures are achieving their required outcomes.
Alongside the monitoring and review process, it is important that effective communication and consultation is used at all stages of the risk assessment process. This ensures that everyone is informed of the risks and the measures taken to reduce them, and that expert and other views are utilised in the most effective ways in the management of the CI system.”
Participants
Funded by the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013)
Netherlands Organisation for applied scientific research
- CMCC - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
- Deltares
- FAC - Future Analytics Consulting Limited
- DRAGADOS - Dragados Sa
- HRW - HR Wallingford Limited
- PANTEIA - Panteia BV
- NGI - Stiftelsen Norges Geotekniske Institutt
- CSIC - Agencia Estatal Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas
- UNU-EHS - United Nations University
- ULSTER - University of Ulster
- VTT - Teknologian Tutkimuskeskus VTT
Netherlands Organisation for applied scientific research
Anna van Buerenplein 1
NL-2595 DA
The Hague