FiW-R-1: Public awareness of storm and flooding risks | Umweltbundesamt

FiW-R-1: Public awareness of storm and flooding risks

Despite extreme weather events in recent years, the German population’s risk awareness is still very low. Not even a quarter of citizens who responded to the survey acknowledge that their house or home is at genuine risk of damage from storms or floodwater. In 2021, the statements made by respondents were probably still influenced by the flood catastrophe that occurred in July of that year: A higher proportion acknowledged that they might be very severely affected.

The population’s risk awareness is rising slightly

For the insurance industry, the population’s and companies’ appropriate risk awareness is one of the most important foundations of their business. Only if this awareness is widespread and deeply rooted and if consequently many people take out adequate insurance, will it be possible to form sufficiently large risk communities for an insurance company to facilitate affordable insurance premiums.

In what way people perceive hazards or risks, how they estimate potential impacts and what type of provident action they need to take, varies from one individual to another. Apart from hard facts – scientifically proven and measurable – which determine the extent of risk, there are numerous subjective components that can have considerable influence on the perception of risks. Such perceptions of risk can often be distorted. On one hand, they can be characterised by unrealistic optimism and the illusion to have everything under control, on the other, they can be influenced by impressions derived from current disastrous events which have triggered great concerns and can lead to an overestimate of individual risks.

This is indicated by findings from the representative population survey entitled ‘Environmental awareness in Germany’ – and / or supplementary questions – which is carried out at regular intervals on behalf of the UBA and the Federal Environment Ministry²¹⁵. The respondents are asked to estimate (among other statements), to what extent they might be personally affected by the impacts of climate change. In 2012, 81 % of respondents stated that they perceived little or no risk that floodwater events or storms might damage their house or home. In the subsequent survey this estimate had changed little: In 2014, 77 % and in 2016, 78 % perceived themselves little or not at all affected. The recent survey conducted in 2021 shows clearly that risk awareness has increased further. This is true, in particular, for the very distinct increase above all in the category of respondents who now feel very much affected. The survey was conducted in September 2021, in other words, two months after the disastrous flooding in the Ahr and Erft valleys. It is justified to assume that the respondents were still affected by those recent events. It is true to say, however, that the values recorded in the course of this survey permit only limited interpretations, as they are not linked to information on the actual exposure of respondents to the climate change impacts mentioned.

In general, it has to be assumed that Germany’s population still underrates the risks involved. Above all, it is the heavy-rain events that give rise to concern. These events can – even at considerable distance from rivers and areas categorised as threatened by flooding – lead to massive inundations in cases where small streams swell up rapidly and burst their banks. If, as in July 2021, 150 litres per square metres of precipitation falls within 24 hours, the soil can no longer absorb such volumes of water (cf. Indicator WW-I-5). Generally speaking, it is possible that localised, brief but extreme, heavy rainfall with a high damage potential can strike anywhere in Germany, thus affecting anyone in that particular locality. The situation is similar in respect of storms, although in this case, there are still some major uncertainties regarding measurements and projections.

In addition to having very little risk awareness, many people believe themselves adequately insured – on the basis of their existing policies – for damage caused by climate change impacts . In many cases, it is still frequently overlooked – despite all information campaigns – that the customary homeowners’ comprehensive insurance does not cover damage caused by heavy flooding. In fact, the density of policies for the extended natural hazard insurance is still rather patchy (cf. Indicator BAU-R-4).

For the population to take full advantage of the possibilities of climate-impacts risk mitigation and to ensure that the necessary precautionary measures are taken, it is essential to observe two crucial factors: The population will have to take their own initiative to be fully informed about their own specific risks and in what way they might be affected. In the first place, individuals must be fully informed about options available to them in terms of ordinary everyday actions and how to go about taking these actions.

Since the mid-2020s, assistance on this has been provided by (amongst other sources) the internet-based information tool ‘Naturgefahren-Check’ (natural hazards check) offered by the GDV. Individuals who rent or own a house, as well as companies, can obtain information to what extent their building is exposed to natural hazards and what adaptation measures might be implemented. By entering their postcode, users can find out what kind of damage an extreme weather event has caused in their locality. On entering exact address details, it has also been possible since 2022 to obtain information via the Hochwasser-­Check (flood check) for any locality, thus finding out about any hazards of heavy rain and of river flooding.. This tool also offers general recommendations on appropriate action to be taken. The ‘Naturgefahren-Check’ (natural hazards check) is intended to heighten the awareness of people in respect of the risks involved in natural hazards and encourage them to be proactive in making their own precautionary arrangements. With the aim to achieve a more effective bundling of the information offered – by covering a broad spectrum of natural hazards – the DWD is currently cooperating with LAWA and BBK on the establishment of a natural hazard portal which will, in future, provide digital procedures for downloading actual hazards threatening a specific location, thus providing a basis for personal decisions on preventative actions. Given its solid information basis, this tool might also be effective in reaching more sectors of society.

^{215 - infas – Institut für angewandte Sozialwissenschaft GmbH 2022: Tabellenband – Zusatzbefragung im Rahmen der Umweltbewusstseinsstudie 2020. Themenbereich: Klimaanpassung. Bonn, 39 pp. https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/2378/dokumente/tabellenband_ubs_zusatzbefragung_sept_2021_klimaanpassung.pdf}