TOU-R-1: Seasonality of bed-nights in wider tourism areas

In all wider tourism areas with the exception of urban-type areas, the seasonality of demand – judging by the number of bed-nights – has significantly decreased. This indicates a more balanced seasonal utilisation. For the destination this can indicate a useful development towards climate adaptation.

More independent of the peak season

There are various general opportunities available to tourism destinations to take precautions against the impacts of climate change, to prepare for coping with them and for adapting to climate change. According to a UBA proposal adopted in 2021, such possibilities and opportunities range from technical measures to measures for crisis prevention and management as well as product adaptation and management and how to guide or direct visitor flows.²¹⁰

At the basic level, the adaptation to climate change includes the enhancement of a destination’s strategy for diversifying their offerings. A diverse and cross-seasonal portfolio of offerings which is not subject to weather conditions or weather patterns will make destinations less dependent on individual tourism activities or attractions. This will put them in a better position to compensate for any temporary phases of lower utilisation or even operational disruptions owing to the impacts of any changing climatic conditions. Rising temperatures and less precipitation from spring until autumn as well as increasing thermal comfort provide destinations with opportunities for instance to extend their offers to the off-season or to benefit from an extended peak season.

Stabilising the seasonal utilisation of tourism infrastructures at a level compatible with the environment and comfortable for both the population and employees, provides one of the building blocks for the sustainable development of tourism destinations. It can help to avoid overburdening the environment at the same time as contributing to reliable job offers for employees.

Such deliberations form the background to the indicator on the seasonality of the wider tourism areas aggregated as ‘Alps with alpine foothills’, ‘Coasts’, ‘Uplands’, ‘Urban-type areas’ and ‘Other areas’. The seasonality coefficient illustrated shows the relationship of the number of bed-nights for the month with the highest number of bed-nights compared to the month with the lowest number of bed-nights in the course of a calendar year. In this context, a high indicator value signifies high seasonality, in other words, a major difference between the month of highest demand and the month of lowest demand. This means that wider tourism areas characterised by high seasonality are particularly dependent on the demand in individual months, and on a few specific touristic offers. In other words, they are exposed to a specific risk of reduced demand whenever the climatic or climate-related conditions for the touristic core season deteriorate. By strengthening, for example those offers which are independent of the weather, or by encouraging the demand in weaker months in a targeted way, it will be possible to mitigate this risk.

Among the wider tourism areas in Germany, the coastal regions are most strongly affected by seasonality. In 2019, prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, bed-night figures in this area ranged from just under 2 million in January to more than 12 million in July. According to the tourism statistics for the summer half-year (May to October) the proportion of bed-nights amounted to three quarters (73 %) of all bed-nights in that year. Likewise, in the wider tourism area of the ‘Alps with alpine foothills’, the summer half-year is very important in terms of overnight stays – roughly two thirds (65 %) of bed-nights take place during that period. However, owing to winter tourism, the occupancy rate beyond the summer months is higher compared to the coastal regions. The seasonality in this area is therefore not quite so pronounced. Here too just under 2 million overnight guests accounted for bed-nights in the demand-poorest months of 2019, while in the strongest month, demand reached just under 6 million bed-nights. Moreover, the significance of the winter season for alpine tourism manifests itself more strongly in pronounced day tourism and associated high added value. especially in skiing resorts.

The other wider tourism areas, in other words the upland regions, urban areas and all other regions clearly enjoy more regular demand for overnight accommodation throughout the year. Especially tourism in urban areas is highly independent of the seasons. The regions mentioned benefit from the fact that the offers available in those areas, such as cultural and city holidays, events tourism and business trips, health and educational holidays are less dependent on the weather or weather patterns. It is true, that here too there are peaks in demand for summer vacations, but these are less pronounced than in coastal regions or the Alps. When interpreting the figures, it must be borne in mind that the categorisation of wider tourism areas differs regarding the degree of differentiation: The ‘Alps with alpine foothills’ and the ‘Coasts’ are very tightly demarcated and thus tailored to specific tourism offers; whereas, by contrast, the ‘Uplands’ and, above all, the ‘Other areas’ have been aggregated much more generously – encompassing, for instance, the condensed metropolitan area of Stuttgart, rural Eastern Friesland, the Rhine valley, the Lüneburg Heath or Mecklenburg’s ‘Switzerland’ and its Lakeland. In these more broadly demarcated wider tourism areas, differences in demand among different travel areas balance each other out more easily owing to the more diverse product range offered. Furthermore it should be borne in mind that the demand – and its seasonal distribution – is influenced by numerous general factors, such as the dates of school holidays and the economic development including factors like inflation or demographic change.

Overall, the seasonality of bed-nights has decreased significantly in the course of recent years, and this applies to all tourism areas with the exception of urban-type areas. This meant, up to and including 2019, that the nationwide increasing bed-night figures increased slightly less in the demand-strong months than in demand-weaker months. As long as the demand for tourism observes ecologically and socially acceptable limits, such a development can actually make a contribution to the adaptation to climate change in the destinations.

^{210 - Dworak T., Lotter F., Hoffmann P., Hattermann F., Bausch T., Günther W. 2021: Folgen des Klimawandels für den Tourismus in den deutschen Alpen- und Mittelgebirgsregionen und Küstenregionen sowie auf den Badetourismus und flussbegleitende Tourismusformen. Abschlussbericht. Umweltbundesamt (Hg.). Texte 117/2021, Dessau-Roßlau, 160 pp. https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/479/publikationen/texte_117-2021_folgen_des_klimawandels_fuer_den_tourismus_in_deutschland_0.pdf}

TOU-R-1: Seasonality of bed-nights in wider tourism areas | Umweltbundesamt