Umweltbundesamt
Click to enlargeThe Global Stocktake assesses the collective progress towards the goals of the Paris Agreement every five years. The first Global Stocktake has revealed major gaps on the way to achieving international climate action goals but also pointed at a clear path ahead. On behalf of UBA, researchers analysed the contributions of the Parties to the Paris Agreement.
The first Global Stocktake (GST) took place during a two-year process in which the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) as well as progress on climate change adaptation, alignment of financial flows with mitigation targets, support and international cooperation on climate action were collectively assessed. The results of the GST were summarised at the climate conference in Dubai in December 2023 (COP28) in a resolution (1/CMA.5) of the Parties to the Paris Agreement. On behalf of the German Environment Agency, researchers from Öko-Institut, Wuppertal Institute, NewClimate Institute and DLR Projektträger provided technical support for the Global Stocktake and identified climate action gaps and opportunities for more ambitious mitigation.
An analysis of the Nationally Determined Contributions and key international reports came to three key conclusions: The current NDCs are not sufficient to limit global warming to 1.5°C, Parties will not meet the goals of their climate action plans with currently implemented and planned mitigation actions, and technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are available in every sector and their costs have fallen significantly.
To close the gaps in climate action and as a result of the GST, the Parties to the Paris Agreement formulated concrete measures to combat climate change. These include tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency, both by 2030, and moving away from fossil fuels by 2050. The resolution also calls for halting and reversing deforestation and forest degradation by 2030 and moving towards sustainable lifestyles, sustainable consumption and production patterns, and circular economy approaches.
The Global Stocktake has a mandate to assess countries' collective, rather than individual, progress towards the goals of the Paris Agreement. Therefore, the Performance Distributions Tool, which was developed as part of this project, offers a more nuanced way to assess collective progress. A performance distribution is a histogram that groups countries based on how they fare in a specific indicator, such as greenhouse gas emissions per capita, or in specific sectors. The aim is to show, outside of the formal GST process, pioneers and laggards as well as room for ambitious climate action.
The results of the Global Stocktake will also be key for Parties in preparing their new Nationally Determined Contributions, which are due in 2025. They are to be taken into account when formulating new and improved climate actions and support for Parties, as well as contribute to better international cooperation. Based on available material, such as research papers and IPCC reports, a concise overview of key mitigation actions was published. A recent UBA Discussion Paper links these mitigation actions to the efforts agreed under the Global Stocktake and discusses how these efforts can be reflected in the new round of NDCs.
The principle of equity plays an important role in the Global Stocktake. Ambitious collective climate action, that takes into account the protection of future generations, is only possible if everyone makes a fair contribution. An analysis of the four equity concepts responsibility, capabilities, egalitarianism and sufficientarianism, which was carried out as part of the research project, has shown that just and ambitious climate action requires the application of more than one of these concepts. In all areas of climate action it is crucial to take into account the different capabilities, from country to country and within countries. It is important to use all available capabilities and opportunities for climate action and to increase them.
In order to be able to leverage the results of the Global Stocktake for enhanced climate action, the discussion paper developed as part of this project concludes that interested actors need to engage in considerable coordination and communicative efforts. While national governments have an obligation to take up the GST outcomes, many of them may not be able or willing to do so. Interested actors should therefore design differentiated strategies to influence the various phases of NDC development, considering the different audiences, channels, messages and tone to achieve effective communication for each phase. Messaging coalitions of like-minded parties in policymaking, NGOs, private sector entities and research can help in this endeavor, together with a focus on positive messages, highlighting the opportunities arising from ambitious climate action and taking inspiration from other countries.
Ahead of the second Global Stocktake, which will be conducted in a two-year process from 2026 to 2028, it will be of particular interest to monitor and evaluate the communication and uptake of the results of the first Global Stocktake into the next round of NDCs.
The UBA’s motto, For our environment (“Für Mensch und Umwelt”), sums up our mission pretty well, we feel. In this video we give an insight into our work.
