Umweltbundesamt
Click to enlargeThe outcomes of the World Climate Change Conference in Baku (COP29) have caused disappointment both in Baku and worldwide. Nevertheless, they still contribute to the international climate action process – an achievement that cannot be taken for granted given the current geopolitical situation.
A significant shortcoming of COP29 was the omission of the compromise language from Dubai (COP28) on “transitioning away from fossil fuels” in the final conclusions. Nevertheless, the resolution on climate finance, which was passed 35 hours after the scheduled end of the conference, can at least be seen as a necessary milestone for multilateral climate action.
Another key outcome of COP29 is that the implementation of the Paris Agreement was not halted, despite some resistance, and existing climate action targets were not weakened. In the coming years, this process urgently needs to be intensified and accelerated in order to keep the 1.5°C Paris target within reach.
The agreement on a climate finance target (New Collective Quantified Goal, NCQG) is of great importance: By 2035, contributions from the national budgets of countries that are cumulatively responsible for very high greenhouse gas emissions have to increase to 300 billion US dollars per year. This does not cover the needs of developing countries for climate financing, which are far higher according to calculations by the responsible finance committee. But it is an important start to a process that could enhance climate finance over the next 10 years.
Financially capable developing countries are motivated to make voluntary contributions to the NCQG. The public contributions for climate action that are provided by development banks can also be included.
In addition to the 300 billion US dollars, all stakeholders, including the private sector, will be asked to contribute funds totaling 1.3 trillion US dollars per year from 2035. The implementation of this demand is to be made more concrete in a “roadmap” by the next COP in Brazil. It is important here to ensure that existing investments and subsidies for fossil fuels are redirected towards climate action, in particular renewable energies. This redirection of financial flows had already been agreed in Article 2.1c of the Paris Agreement. So far, however, most countries around the world have de facto ignored this article.
The specific Baku decisions on global CO₂ emissions trading markets, which were outlined in Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, are of particular relevance for the next ten years.
The new rules are intended to ensure environmental integrity, i.e. the ecological sustainability of trading emission reductions between countries. This means that credits from emission reduction projects now have a legal framework.
With the guidelines adopted in Baku specific methodologies must now be developed that can effectively guarantee the environmental integrity of Article 6 projects and prevent double counting or fraud.
Other important negotiation topics at COP29, to which UBA employees also contributed, included the preparation of ambitious climate action plans by individual countries (so-called Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs), emissions reporting, climate science topics, agriculture and the review of the global community’s progress on climate action (follow-up of the UAE consensus from COP28, preparations for the second Global Stocktake, 7. Assessment Report of the IPCC and 3rd Periodic Review), the avoidance of methane emissions in waste management and the link between marine protection, climate change and climate action (the so-called „Ocean-Climate Nexus“).
Over the next 11 months, the new national climate action targets and plans of all signatory states will take centre stage.
These “Nationally Determined Contributions” (NDCs), i.e. the contributions of individual countries to international climate action, must be submitted by COP30 in Brazil. According to the Paris Agreement, the NDCs must address the outcome of the Global Stocktake at COP28 in Dubai. Among other things, this called for an alignment with the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement, a move away from fossil fuels and a tripling of installed renewable energy capacity as well as a doubling of the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements globally by 2030.
Brazil has already submitted their NDC. It includes reducing emissions by 59 % to 67 % by 2035 compared to 2005. The United Kingdom announced an 81 % reduction in greenhouse gases by 2035 compared to 1990.
At various events during COP29, the call to align the NDCs with a 1.5°C-compatible pathway was repeatedly emphasized. This also included the call for the global North to co-finance climate action measures in poor countries that are linked to ambitious targets.
It remains important to note that there is a huge lack of ambition in the current NDCs with an end date of 2030: Their implementation would lead to a 2.8°C warmer world by the end of the century.
The new NDCs of the G20 countries, which together are responsible for over 80 % of global greenhouse gas emissions, are of central importance for international climate action on the way to COP30 in Brazil. However, the signals from the incoming new US administration under Donald Trump so far indicate higher emissions and a renewed US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. In a worst-case scenario, the US could even withdraw from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Against this backdrop, the EU, together with China, should assume a leadership role in international climate action in order to encourage the other G20 states to also engage in constructive cooperation.
Despite major resistance and geopolitical challenges, COP29 managed to reaffirm the Paris goals and to take small steps to keep these goals within reach. The next COP30 in Brazil will primarily focus on the new national climate action plans (NDCs) and the role of nature in climate action. Until then, ambitious, transformative and, eventually, large steps towards a global 1.5°C pathway are urgently needed from all Parties.
The UBA’s motto, For our environment (“Für Mensch und Umwelt”), sums up our mission pretty well, we feel. In this video we give an insight into our work.
