CLIMREG – Climate Impact Register for Germany | Umweltbundesamt

To analyze the present climate regarding the incidence probability of impact-relevant extreme events and to compare this to scenarios of a future climate, in order to assess the development tendencies of these events is the key task of “SP1. Climate”.

Based on the regional climate model CLM, ensemble calculations of extreme events are performed to derive statistically significant, non- or inaccurate detectable indicators of climatic effects.

Frost events

SP Water: To determine the vulnerability of water-related sectors and natural areas in Germany, critical conditions and regions affected shall be identified, analyzed and be projected for different scenarios. Important issues here relate to the change in the spatio-temporal dynamics of the water cycle and its impact on the sectors and natural areas, such as the sequence of high and low water, and exceedance probability for critical thresholds.

SP Nature Protection: The risks for different nature protection aims posed by climate change will be identified, and consequences of possible response options for action will be analysed and evaluated in order to ensure the functionality of nature and its potential for a sound environment.

SP Health: In collaboration with external cooperation partners, indicators of health risks to the population, such as exposure to heat and sultry weather, as well as in the agricultural and silvicultural sectors (e.g., risk of pests and pathogens) will be developed and described.

SP Forestry: Using risk indicators the risks expected for forestry and forests under climate change and specific extreme events shall be estimated (w.r.t. wood production, tree species diversity, and carbon storage). An assessment of potential and uncertainty of biomass production (wood) as substitutes by fossil fuels will be done.

SP Cities/Conurbations: The topic “extreme climate & cities”, especially in the Berlin conurbation, has to be reflected in the climate impact register. Analysing the interplay of climate change and extreme exposures by dust and particulate matter will contribute to this aim.

SP Agriculture: There is an enormous flexibility in adapting to climate change within the agricultural sector. The management of land and livestock is furthermore a factor that should not be underestimated concerning the emission of greenhouse gases. The issue of future yields of the dominant cultures wheat and corn in connection with extremes as well as the impact on low-yield sites or on specialty crops such as viticulture in interaction with adaptation strategies forms the focal point.

SP Special User: Data from the register of climate impacts will be processed according to special user needs, e.g., for the sectors of tourism, energy, and traffic. The vulnerability differs according to the regions and the kind of activities considered, and can be described by means of indicators for climate changes and the specific regional and seasonal sensitivities and adaptation strategies.

SP Soils: The climate sensitivity of soils will be described by indicators including soil-climate interactions. This concerns in particular changes in the carbon budget and degradation processes. These slowly occurring changes are heavily influenced by the water balance in soils, which shows a fast reaction to climate changes. Thus, swamps and wetland areas within the landscape have especially to be considered.

SP Climate Impacts for Germany: To illustrate the specific regional and sectoral results obtained, a standard-setting climate impact register for Germany will be set up which makes it possible to interactively display the maps and quantitatively display the effects of the vulnerability of Germany to climate change.