CLIMAR – Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation responses for marine activities
Background and Goals
Based on the IPCC recommendations, the Kyoto Protocol and relevant national strategy papers, it is clear that specific research on the vulnerability of marine ecosystems and their users is necessary. Mitigation measures aim to provide long-term solutions to the problem, while adaptation measures are necessary to deal with the primary and secondary effects of climate change in the North Sea. In addition, instruments are required that help to investigate adaptation measures in terms of their sustainability, their influence on marine activities and their relationship with preventive measures and sectoral policies.
The main objective of the project is to devise an evaluation framework for adaptation scenarios and measures as a response to influences induced by climate change. This data acquisition framework is intended to cover the entire North Sea environment (ecological, social and economic). The evaluation tool will enable the economic, social and ecological value of the relevant adaptation measures to be assessed and subjected to a sustainability test.
Based on the two case studies combined with an analysis of the applicable policy and legal framework, recommendations will be drawn up for future North Sea policy and the different socio-economic activities. A generally applicable "sustainability evaluation tool" will be generated as a final outcome of the project.
Content time
toResearch area/region
Country
- Belgium
Natural spatial classification
- coasts: North Sea-/Baltic Sea coasts
Steps in the process of adaptation to climate change
Step 1: Understand and describe climate change
Approach and results
Different climate scenarios for Belgium have been developed based on literature studies, data analysis and climate scenarios for the neighboring countries. In a moderate scenario, sea level rises by 60 cm by 2100; in a worst-case scenario up to 2 meters by 2100.
Numerical models in the field of hydrology/hydrodynamics: OPTOS-BCZ, mu-WAVE, SWAN, mu-STM
Parameter (climate signals)
- Altered rainfall patterns
- Higher average temperatures
- Sea level rise und storm surges
- Storm
Further Parameters
water temperature, current and tide amplitude, hydrology, morphology
Further times
medium to long-term scenarios
Step 2a: Identify and assess risks - climate effects and impact
Approach and results
Primary effects: sea level rise, increasing storm frequency, increasing precipitation, coastal erosion, temperature changes, changes in salinity
Secondary effects for: fishing, transport and ports, dredging, flood risk, wind energy
Step 2b: Identify and assess risks - Vulnerability, risks and chances
Approach and results
The intensive use of the North Sea has the consequence that the vulnerability of its ecological, sociological and economic community due to climate change is high.
Vulnerability is understood as the risk of harm, with sensitivity/resilience and adaptive capacity taken into account.
Step 3: Develop and compare measures
Measures and/or strategies
The detailed study and evaluation of possible adaptation measures will be carried out in two case studies on coastal floods and the fishing sector.
Time horizon
- 2071–2100 (far future)
Conflicts / synergies / sustainability
There is a need for sustainable approaches for the North Sea in relation to the effects of climate change.
Participants
Funding / Financing
The project is being funded by the Belgian research programme "Science for a sustainable Development", which is under the management of the Belgian Science Policy Office. The budget for the first phase of the project from 15/12/2006 to 31/01/2009 is some €550,000.
Project management
The Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models (MUMM)
Cooperation/Partners
ECOLAS NV;
The Maritime Institute (M);
Flanders Hydraulic Research (FHR);
ILVO-Fisheries;
Contact
Royal Belgian Institute for Natural Sciences (RBINS)
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models (MUMM)
Gulledelle 100
B-1200 Brussels
