ESPON CLIMATE – Climate Change and Territorial Effects on Regions and Local Economies in Europe | Umweltbundesamt

The project made use of the climate model CCLM (developed by COSMO and CLM) and applied the moderate A1B emissions scenario of the IPCC (2007). The reference period is based on measurements from 1961-1990.

In addition to the climate model and emission scenario, socio-economic development trends have been considered as well.

Frost days, days with snow cover

The results of the ESPON Climate project shows that the following sectors of the economy are directly affected: the primary sector (agriculture, forestry), tourism (winter and summer) and the energy sector (supply and demand). The severity and nature of impact on these sectors vary in different parts of Europe resulting in negative impacts in some places and positive impacts in others.

ESPON CLIMATE is mainly about a vulnerability assessment as a basis for identifying regional typologies of climate change exposure, sensitivity, impact and vulnerability. On this basis, tailor-made adaptation options can be derived which are able to cope with regionally specific patterns of climate change. In the ESPON Climate project this regional specificity is addressed by seven case studies from the transnational to the very local level.

EPSON CLIMATEassesses 5 dimensions of sensitivity:

• Physical sensitivity: relates to all human artefacts that are important for territorial development and which are potentially affected by climate change.
• Social sensitivity relates to human populations that may be adversely or positively affected by climate change. According to the assessment, these populations are mainly concentrated in Southern European agglomerations and along the coastline. In fact, the most sensitive regions are coastal agglomerations in the Mediterranean.
• Economic sensitivity is related to economic activities or sectors that are especially sensitive to climatic changes. The results of the assessment highlight particularly those local economies which are dependent on tourism, agriculture and forestry: the Mediterranean region, the Alps, large parts of Eastern Europe, but also Scandinavia (energy demand for heating!).
• Environmental sensitivity focuses on natural entities that are highly sensitive (like protected natural areas or especially fire prone forests) and relatively stable entities like soils that have only limited capacities to adapt and at the same constitute the basis for animal and plant ecosystems. The results indicate that especially mountain and river delta regions have protected natural areas and/or possess sensitive soils and forests.
• Cultural sensitivity encompasses cultural assets like museums and internationally recognized historic sites that may potentially be damaged or destroyed due to climate change.The results show that concentrations of sensitive cultural assets in regions along the coasts and along major rivers. Coastal cities like Barcelona, Rome or Venice with their outstanding cultural heritage can easily be distinguished.

At the level of the EUas whole, the ESPON CLIMATE project has shown a high level of mitigative and adaptive capacity. If this capacity is capitalized, it will certainly enhance the competitiveness of the EU in the global market. Another important point is that the diversity of climatic regions in Europe allows for a degree of economic adjustment. For example the economic sensitivity analysis of the ESPON Climate project suggests that while the impact of climate change on summer tourism is negative in the Mediterranean regions, it is positive in the colder regions of the north which will enjoy a more favorable Tourist Comfort Index. For the competitiveness of the EU as a whole, this implies that a potential loss of tourism in one part of Europe may be compensated by a potential gain in another part.

It is evident from the economic impact analysis that the primary sector in the peripheral regions is particularly vulnerable to climate change. This plus a low level of adaptive capacity may exacerbate regional disparities in Europe and reduce European cohesion. Hence, there needs to be a mainstreaming of climate issues into the rural development policy in the interest of a balanced territorial development of European rural areas.

As a rule unfavorable impacts are addressed by the developmentof water management and the use of various means of risk prevention. As far as recommendations for concrete projects are concerned, tasks requiring international co-operation have been mentioned most frequently in, for example, the development of models, development of forecast systems, transfer of knowledge, new methods of planning, development of the spatial and regional planning practice, and its preparation for coping with the impact of climate change, forecasting of and coping with the potential impacts of climate change and natural risks, and coping with transboundary risks. The emphasis is on the theme of water management.