MICE – Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes | Umweltbundesamt

Extremes in observation data and climate model data are catalogued and future changes in climate extremes are assessed by extreme value analysis (EVA), using the IPCC emission scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 and the global climate model HadCM3 from the Hadley Centre.

Based on the emission scenario A2, the following climate changes are projected for the period 2070-2099:

• In most areas of Europe, heat waves will be hotter and last longer,
• The cold season will become much shorter and the number of very cold days with temperatures below freezing-point will decrease,
• Southern Europe and the Mediterranean are expected to become drier with extended drought periods in summer and reduced precipitation in winter,
• Northern Europe is expected to have wetter winters, and drought periods are likely to occur more frequently in summer,
• The number of torrential rainfall events could increase, both absolutely and as a proportion of the total precipitation,
• In the damper climate of northern Europe, there will be more days with high rainfall,
• In the drier climate of southern Europe, there will be a higher proportion of rainfall on very humid days, but a decreasing number of days with high rainfall,
• An increase in precipitation in the winter is likely for most areas of Europe and will lead to a greater flood risk.

Spatial and temporal patterns in the occurrence of extreme events will be analysed for: Precipitation (floods, drought and snow cover), Temperature (heat stress), storms

2071-2099

The climate change impacts are evaluated for six sectors.

1. Water: Intense rainfall events cause flooding, and the flood risk is particularly high in the winter;
2. Agriculture in the Mediterranean countries: Heat stress and drought will increase;
3. Forestry: Increased risk of forest fires and storm damage, infestations of bark beetles influenced by storm events, heat stress, drought and flooding;
4. Energy industry: Interactions between energy demand and temperature;
5. Insurance business: Storm damage and flood damage with loss of insured fixed assets;
6. Tourism: Negative impact on Alpine winter sports due to less snow, and on summer holidays in Mediterranean areas due to heat stress.