NO REGRET - Avoid Water Shortage
Background and Goals
The Dutch-led project involves a total of five partners from states bordering the North Sea - Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany - studying the issue of water shortage from different perspectives. The project acronym is intended to illustrate that a prompt, forward-looking water policy with "no regret" can be pursued as a response to the effects of climate change.
The German sub-project entitled "Enough water for agriculture?" is studying the options for relieving the strain on under-pressure groundwater bodies in the Gifhorn, Uelzen, Lüchow-Dannenberg and Lüneburg rural districts, taking account of water management system conditions and maintenance of field irrigation. Despite relatively low precipitation, irrigation has enabled the region to develop into a highly specialised, successful arable farming area. Despite the caution exercised in issuing water extraction permits, the groundwater volume in the North East of Lower Saxony is showing significant signs of strain. This became clear when implementing the EC Water Framework Directive, when the following four groundwater bodies were identified as being likely to not be in "good condition" in terms of volume: Ise left, Ise right, Jeetzel left, Ilmenau right. Therefore, in line with the Water Framework Directive, a more detailed description of the groundwater bodies, the system relationships and the management plans and programmes of measures to improve the condition is required. The risk for agriculture is that in the future there will be an attempt to reduce extraction permits for agricultural field irrigation to ensure a good condition in terms of volume.
The project has the following research objectives:
- Improving hydro-geological knowledge and clarification of hydro-geological issues for different groundwater bodies;
- Research, development, assessment and support for measures to relieve the strain on groundwater bodies;
- Development and evaluation of future scenarios in terms of relevant parameters, such as the regional effects of climate change and the trend in agricultural water demand;
- Involvement of affected groups (stakeholders) including water management bodies, rural district authorities, agriculture and forestry, conservation, shipping authorities and water associations in a steering group to support the project;
- Cooperation and discussion with the four partner projects on the issue of "Climate change and freshwater scarcity".
The objective of the German sub-project is to ensure agricultural field irrigation in four Lower Saxony rural districts. At present, there is insufficient knowledge of the very changeable subterranean hydro-geological conditions and final assessments are not possible. Closing this gap is a central objective of the sub-project. Targeted measures can only be adopted once we know whether water scarcity is problematic for the ecological balance and, particularly, whether biotopes requiring protection are affected. The second central objective is to bring together possible measures and assess their suitability for the region. Only combination of different measures in the three areas of water consumption, groundwater regeneration rates and alternative water sources would have a sustainable impact on groundwater balance. This is particularly necessary as the effects of climate change forecast for the region, such as more heavy rain, more sunshine and higher temperatures, will result in changes to the natural conditions for the groundwater bodies.
Content time
toResearch area/region
Country
- Belgium
- Denmark
- Germany
- Netherlands
Region of implementation (all German federal states)
- Lower Saxony
Natural spatial classification
- North-West German lowland
Spatial resolution
In Germany, Eastern Lower Saxony, including the rural districts of Gifhorn, Uelzen, Lüchow-Dannenberg and Lüneburg
Steps in the process of adaptation to climate change
Step 1: Understand and describe climate change
Approach and results
Future scenarios are being set up to describe changes in climate, agricultural structure and markets, water consumption in agriculture (irrigation needs), energy costs and population development. Global climate simulations show only a slight strengthening of the water cycle and are unable to depict sometimes significant regional changes. By contrast, regional climate models can include significantly more details for the region being studied. They adopt the large scale changes specified in the global climate model as averages for particular meteorological variables in the region and long-term series of observations are statistically analysed to reflect these changes in the form of a scenario.
The project uses the "Climate Diagram Generator" developed at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) for the German section of the Elbe drainage basin for the years 2001 to 2055. This enables climate scenario data to be compared with observation data for the years 1951 to 1998/2000 gathered throughout Germany. The scenario data is based on scenario A1B from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which represents a moderate "business as usual" development path.
Parameter (climate signals)
- Altered rainfall patterns
- Higher average temperatures
Further Parameters
Precipitation (annual total, monthly average), temperature (annual average, monthly average, daily fluctuation), average potential monthly evapotranspiration
Further times
2055 (comparison of period 1951 to 2000 with 2046 to 2055)
Step 2a: Identify and assess risks - climate effects and impact
Approach and results
The effects of possible climate change on the water balance are being studied. For example, temperature increases have an influence on the water cycle as more water can evaporate (particularly above the sea), changing the formation of clouds and precipitation, reducing evaporation over land and thus changing the evaporation properties of the land surface and plants. All of these components will intensity: more evaporation, more precipitation and more drainage. Regional effects could include droughts, flooding and storms.
The effects of climate change on groundwater regeneration result from changes to the nature of precipitation, the precipitation type and the geographical and chronological distribution of precipitation. Lower precipitation volumes are predicted for Eastern Lower Saxony, which will lead to increasingly negative climatic water balance. In the long term, this will reduce groundwater regeneration.
Step 3: Develop and compare measures
Measures and/or strategies
Adaptation measures for a forward-looking water policy can be developed and implemented ""with no regret"", as the resulting opportunities to relieve the strain on under-pressure groundwater bodies are not only beneficial in dealing with climate effects but make a more general contribution to ensuring agricultural field irrigation.
The objective of the adaptation measures studied in the German sub-project is to improve and safeguard water resources for agriculture.
The following measures to relieve the strain on groundwater bodies could contribute to this:
1. Substitution of groundwater extraction with water ""imported"" from the Elbe side channel, surface water stored during winter flooding or purified waste water stored throughout the year.
2. Reduction of agricultural demand and increase in water efficiency;
3. Increasing groundwater regeneration by local forest conversion (""groundwater forest""), involving conversion of the dominant pine monocultures to beech woods, and increasing groundwater regeneration by targeted seepage of flood water.
These adaptation measures have the following effects:
1. Safeguarding agriculture, in particular increasing production of energy crops;
2. Creation of tourist attractions around semi natural landscaped storage pools;
3. Supporting the WRRL management plans;
4. Relieving the burden on flora/fauna habitat areas (e.g. heathland streams) by reducing introduction of waste water;
5. Selective creation and safeguarding of wet biotopes.
Close coordination with local players will increase acceptance for implementation of the proposed adaptation measures and influence policy. Therefore, a network of groups and institutions involved is being established.
Time horizon
- 2036–2065
Conflicts / synergies / sustainability
Usage conflict between agriculture and conservation/environmental protection in terms of water resources, particularly groundwater extraction.
Participants
Funding / Financing
European Union - Interreg IIIB, North Sea Region;
European Fund for Regional Development (EFRD);
Ministry of the Environment of Lower Saxony;
Chamber of Agriculture Lower Saxony
Project management
Province of Groningen, Department of Rural Area and Water (the Netherlands);
Coordination in Germany: Agricultural Chamber of Lower Saxony, district office Uelzen
Cooperation/Partners
four partner projects in the Netherlands, Denmark and Belgium dealing with the issue of climate change and scarcity of freshwater
Contact
LWK - Landwirtschaftskammer Niedersachsen, Bezirksstelle Uelzen
Wilhelm-Seedorf-Str. 3
D-29525 Uelzen
