BayKliZ - Climate Future Bavaria
Background and Goals
The assessment of the effects of climate change and the identification of the need for adaptation to climate change consequences depend heavily on their expected extent. In order to estimate possible future climate developments, regional climate projections for Europe are available based on global circulation models and various greenhouse gas emission scenarios. When using different models as well as slightly changed framework conditions, e.g. the start of climate model calculations under dry or humid conditions may lead to deviating results for the individual climate projections due to the process. Thus, the use of different climate projections for further analysis may also lead to different statements. For this reason, analyses of effects and adaptation including all climate projections should be carried out with a so-called ensemble analysis. The individual authorities often do not have the capacities to do the analyses due to high workload.
In order to remedy this problem, a Bavaria-wide, cross-departmentally coordinated data basis for all adaptation activities of state and municipal administrations at regional and local level is being created within the framework of the project "Climate Future Bavaria". On the basis of a audited ensemble of climate projections, which best represents the range of future climatic changes for Bavaria, the changes are made for over 50 climatic values, e.g. Heat days, extreme precipitation, etc., calculated and evaluated for Bavaria and its natural areas.
The aim is to create a consistent and comparable data and information basis for climate research in Bavaria and to make it available to users. BayKIS serves as an instrument which is supported by user-specific publications. The BayKIS concepts developed as part of the "Climate Future Bavaria 2050" project will be implemented as part of the project "Focus on Climate Adaptation in Bavaria". Results are published in “BayKLAS 2016” and will be published in the upcoming publication on guidance to the implementation of climate adaptation in Bavaria.
Content time
toResearch area/region
Country
- Germany
Region of implementation (all German federal states)
- Bavaria
Natural spatial classification
- Nationwide
Steps in the process of adaptation to climate change
Step 1: Understand and describe climate change
Approach and results
Results of the projects are
- Availability of ensemble evaluation for different emission scenarios based on approx. 80 climate projections (SRES A1B, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for Bavaria in bias-corrected form)
- quality assessment of climate projections of behavior of near-surface climatic variables by means of a climate projection audit;
- Availability of approximately 150 derived and climatic guide values (e.g. heat days, heavy precipitation or drought) for spatially differentiated characterization of climate change;
- Development of a processing tool of climate projections
- Development of a technical and operational tool for the operation of a web-based climate information system for Bavaria (BayKIS)
Parameter (climate signals)
- Heat waves
- Altered rainfall patterns
- Higher average temperatures
- Extreme precipitation (incl. hail, snow)
- Dry periods
Further Parameters
Frosttage, Eistage, frostfreie Periode, Anzahl Heiztage, Anzahl der Kühltage, Dauer der Vegetationslänge, klimatische Wasserbilanz, Extremniederschlagstage, Nassperioden
Participants
Funding / Financing
Bayerisches Staatsministerium für Umwelt und Verbraucherschutz (StMUV)
Project management
Bavarian State Office for Environment (LfU)
Cooperation/Partners
Bavarian State Office for Environment (LfU)
Ludwig-Maximilian University Munich (LMU)
Contact
Bayerisches Landesamt für Umwelt (LfU)
Bürgermeister-Ulrich-Straße 160
86179 Augsburg
