Umweltbundesamt
Click to enlargeEvery five years, the Parties to the Paris Agreement are called to submit new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC). The new round of NDCs is due in 2025. With the NDCs submitted by mid-2024, the world is heading for a global warming of 2.6 to 3.1 degrees by the end of the century. At COP28, Parties agreed that the new NDCs should be aligned with the 1.5 degrees climate target.
The Paris Agreement, which was adopted in 2015, set out a five-year cycle for raising ambition in climate action step by step. Part of this ambition mechanism is the so-called Global Stocktake (GST). Looking back, the Global Stocktake identifies progress and gaps in climate action, looking forward, it identifies solutions and implementation options for effective climate action. These findings are then to provide impetus for ambitious national climate targets and international cooperation.
The climate action targets are submitted as so-called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). In 2025, the Parties to the Paris Agreement are required to submit an NDC with a climate target for the year 2035. The so-called Katowice Rulebook (decisions of the international climate conference COP24) provides guidance on the information that should be included in the NDCs. Particularly important: The NDCs should describe the extent to which the results of the Global Stocktake (GST) have been taken into account. With the conclusion of the first GST in 2023, the Parties have agreed to align their new NDCs with the global temperature goal to limit the rise in temperature to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.
Specific demands for greenhouse gas reduction in the first GST include tripling renewable energy capacity globally by 2030, doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030 and accelerating the phase-out of fossil fuels. Furthermore, nature-based solutions in climate action need to be strengthened and global deforestation is to end and be reversed by 2030. The first GST also calls for circular economy approaches to play a greater role in fighting climate change.
Implementing the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted for the target year 2030 would mean a 2.6 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 2019 (UNFCCC secretariat NDC Synthesis Report 2024). Comparing these figures with statements in the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shows just how far away the currents NDCs are from the goals of the Paris Agreement: limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial times can only be achieved if emissions are reduced by 43 percent by 2030 compared to 2019. The greenhouse gas emissions expected under the current NDCs would use up 86 percent of the carbon budget compatible with 1.5 degrees and 37 percent of the carbon budget compatible with 2 degrees of global warming in this decade. If the NDCs were to be implemented as they currently stand, the global carbon budget with which the Paris climate target of 1.5 degrees can be kept within reach would be largely used up by 2030.
According to the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2024, the world is heading for a temperature increase of 2.6 to 3.1 degrees above pre-industrial levels in 2024 unless countries ramp up their measures and do more than they have promised in their NDCs for 2030 under the Paris Agreement. Emissions must be reduced by at least 28 percent by 2030 from 2019 levels compared to current policy scenarios in order to achieve a 2-degree-compatible pathway, or by at least 42 percent below 2019 levels compared to current policy scenarios in order to achieve a 1.5-degree-compatible pathway. Current policy scenarios as calculated in the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2024 are emissions scenarios that are based on the assumption that no further climate action measures are implemented, that have not already been initiated, planned or ruled as required by law. There is a considerable gap between the climate action measures that have been planned or enacted by law in individual countries to date and the climate targets currently submitted by the countries for 2030 (the so-called implementation gap).
The Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that a 60 percent reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 compared to 2019 would be necessary to meet the 1.5 degree target. Compared to current policy scenarios, emissions would have to be reduced by at least 57 percent by 2035 compared to 2019 in order to achieve a 1.5-degree-compatible pathway. Based on increased climate action measures from 2024, an annual global reduction in emissions of 7.5 percent would be necessary in order not to exceed the 1.5-degree target. These figures must be incorporated into the design of the new NDCs in order to keep the 1.5 degree target of the Paris Agreement within reach.
The NDC targets need to be outlined transparently, i.e. without loopholes, economy-wide, covering all sectors and greenhouse gases and with an absolute, quantifiable target value for greenhouse gas emissions. They should clearly describe the measures and policies that will be taken to implement a fair contribution to global climate action and reflect the goals of the Global Stocktake.
In addition to the NDCs, the Paris Agreement calls on all Parties to develop long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LT-LEDS). Now that many countries have submitted these long-term strategies in recent years, the new NDCs are expected to become a milestone towards achieving these long-term strategies.
The German Environment Agency (UBA) co-coordinates the exchange of NDC experts from the EU member states and the EU Commission within the international climate negotiations at expert level.
In the 2020/2021 NDC cycle, in which NDCs with the target year 2030 were submitted, the German Environment Agency developed a method for systematically analysing the NDC design. This also enabled a comparison with previous NDCs. The project used this method to examine NDCs from 20 different countries. The analysis aimed to capture all elements that are essential for raising ambition. These include increasing the ambition of greenhouse gas reduction efforts as well as the completeness, feasibility and transparency of climate action targets. On the one hand, the aim was to classify the ambitions, efforts and orientation of countries' Nationally Determined Contributions in a differentiated manner and thus close a gap in existing NDC analysis tools. On the other hand, the analysis method can be used in the development of new NDCs to ensure that all important elements are included in the NDC. The project results are available here on the project website and summarized in an infographic.
The UBA’s motto, For our environment (“Für Mensch und Umwelt”), sums up our mission pretty well, we feel. In this video we give an insight into our work.
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