HUE-1: Manageability of climate change impacts | Umweltbundesamt

HUE-1: Manageability of climate change impacts

Since 2010 the proportion of citizens stating as a result of a representative public survey that the impacts of climate change are manageable in Germany has been declining. In 2021, 66 % of respondents were little or not at all convinced.

Widespread doubts about manageability of climate impacts

The availability of and access to fairly robust projections of future climate change and associated impacts are essential prerequisites for adequate political, administrative, operational and private decision-making and appropriate actions.

Federal government considers it one of its key responsibilities to ensure adequate information is easily accessible, with convincing illustrations of the challenges concerned while highlighting the decision-making assistance available. To this end, Federal government created the German Climate Preparedness Portal. By visiting the website www.klivoportal.de, authorities, companies and civilians can home in on approved support offerings which provide advice on adapting to climate change, as well as support on implementation matters. In 2021 the BMUV initiated the Centre for Climate Adaptation (ZKA) which provides an additional weblink entitled www.zentrum-klimaanpassung.de, offering opportunities for obtaining advice, for continued professional development and for the networking of stakeholders and decision-makers in municipalities as well as bodies responsible for social services. Whether and to what extent the information provided is ultimately taken on board by relevant members of the public, motivating them to take rational and targeted action, is largely dependent on how they view the issues concerned. To achieve widespread and enduring acceptance of the concept and implementation of adaptation measures in Germany nationwide, depends on a broad consensus among the German public recognising that climate change is a serious challenge that requires taking the necessary adaptation measures. Consequently, to know the public’s perception, their appraisal of climate change and its impacts on society is an important foundation for the Federal government for shaping its information policy accordingly and targeting its funding activities in a meaningful way.

The social assessment of climate change and adaptation is the result of many factors, some of which interact in complex ways. Crucial influencing factors include the occurrence of (extreme) events and the appraisal of personal risks. Typically, climate protection and adaptation enter the public consciousness especially at times when extreme weather events and their impacts affect many people in their own country and when they become aware of the heavy damage they have caused. Intensive reporting in the media tends to kindle the public’s awareness regarding events closely bound up with climate change. But the more the public turn their attention to other subjects, the more the perceived importance of climate protection and adaptation tends to wane. Other crucial influencing factors – apart from the current weather-related and weather-pattern related situation – are the public’s confidence in the government’s agency to take appropriate action, an individual’s understanding of causes, consequences and possibilities of action, as well as an individual’s own scope for action based on their private and professional circumstances.

The representative population survey entitled ‘Environmental Awareness in Germany’ is conducted regularly on behalf of the UBA.²³³ The survey contains several questions which permit drawing conclusions regarding respondents’ opinions and appraisals in respect of climate-change impacts on Germany. Since 2002 the questionnaire has been integral to a catalogue of questions posed in an environmental awareness study and, among other things, this questionnaire asks respondents to what extent they are convinced that Germany is capable of managing the problems arising from climate change. The outcomes of this question are illustrated in the indicator presented here.

As far as past years are concerned, the time series regarding the individual response options do not yet indicate a significant trend. However, it can be stated that up until 2006 the majority of respondents were little or not at all convinced that it would be possible to manage the climate change impacts. During the period from 2008 to 2012 the majority ratio has shifted and the appraisals turned out more optimistic than before. For example, in 2010 no less than 56.0 % of respondents were either fairly or even fully convinced that climate change impacts would be manageable in Germany. Since then scepticism has risen again, and since 2014 more than half of respondents were again little or not at all convinced that in Germany the problems resulting from climate change are manageable. As far as the surveys conducted in 2016 and 2021 are concerned, roughly two thirds of respondents had shared this appraisal. As possible reasons for this, the 2016 Environmental Awareness Study stated that respondents may have become more aware of the complexity of the issues or that they were experiencing the impacts of climate change with greater intensity in their own everyday lives.²³⁴ Both studies showed that climate change was perceived more as a threat than before; in 2021 as many as 80 % of respondents perceived climate change impacts as a threat to livelihoods in Germany. Accordingly, more than 90 % of respondents considered adaptation measures to be required urgently.

Although there was no explicit question regarding a respondent’s personal willingness to adapt to climate change, this question can be seen as part of the socio-economic transformation which was, in fact, the focus of the Environmental Awareness Study conducted in 2020. Generally, it was noted that respondents were largely in agreement with regard to climate- and environment-related protection measures, and respondents also declared their willingness to behave in harmony with the environment. At the same time it was noted, however, that respondents felt uncertain and overwhelmed when it came to their own ability to participate actively in the transformation process. For citizens to become actively involved in the transformation process, they will need supporting offers, better and clearer framework conditions, more communication and positive incentives.²³⁵ To date, these routes do not seem to have been taken sufficiently, and such deficits seem to affect how respondents view the manageability of climate change impacts.

In a qualitative preliminary study conducted in the run-up to the 2020 Environmental Awareness Study, another factor was identified which may also affect the appraisal in a negative way: In fact, part of the respondents rated the response in politics and society as being much too hesitant and not adequate to the problem.²³⁶ To prevent damage to the public’s confidence in the state’s agency, it is necessary to use the political and social discourse as a vehicle to arrive at concrete and viable solutions and measures.

^{233 - infas – Institut für angewandte Sozialwissenschaft GmbH 2022: Tabellenband – Zusatzbefragung im Rahmen der Umweltbewusstseinsstudie 2020. Themenbereich: Klimaanpassung. Bonn, 39 pp. https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/2378/dokumente/tabellenband_ubs_zusatzbefragung_sept_2021_klimaanpassung.pdf}

^{234 - BMUB & UBA – Umweltbundesamt (Hg.) 2017: Umweltbewusstsein in Deutschland 2016. Ergebnisse einer repräsentativen Bevölkerungsumfrage. Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz, Bau und Reaktorsicherheit, Umweltbundesamt. Berlin, Dessau-Roßlau, 88 pp. https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/umweltbewusstsein-in-deutschland-2016}

^{235 - BMUV – Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz, nukleare Sicherheit und Verbraucherschutz, UBA – Umweltbundesamt (Hg.) 2022: Umweltbewusstseinsstudie 2020. Ergebnisse einer repräsentativen Bevöl­kerungsumfrage. Dessa-Roßlau, 82 pp. https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/479/publikationen/ubs_2020_0.pdf}

^{236 - Stieß I., Sunderer G., Raschewski L., Stein M., Götz K., Belz J., Follmer R., Hölscher J., Birzle-Harder B. 2022: Repräsentativumfrage zum Umweltbewusstsein und Umweltverhalten im Jahr 2020. Texte 20/2022, Dessau-Roßlau, 170 pp. https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/479/publikationen/texte_20-2022_repraesentativumfrage_zum_umweltbewusstsein_und_umweltverhalten_im_jahr_2020.pdf}